A Decisive Rubicon.

Geezer power.

Editor’s Note: Today’s edition is later than usual. I’m in Denver to celebrate my nephew’s wedding. Getting here took a bit longer than expected. Tomorrow’s Weekend Edition will be distributed at the normal time (9am Eastern, give or take)

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1. Britain and the U.S. are poised to cross a decisive Rubicon in the Ukraine war today at a White House summit where they will discuss plans to allow Kyiv to strike targets inside Russia with Western-supplied missiles. In a final bid to scare off the West, Russian President Vladimir Putin warned on Thursday evening he would regard such an agreement as tantamount to NATO directly entering the war. “This will mean that NATO countries, the United States, and European countries are fighting Russia,” he said. The threat came with U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer still en route to Washington ahead of Friday’s talks with President Joe Biden over Ukraine’s possible use of British-made Storm Shadow cruise missiles on Russian soil. board his flight. “Russia illegally invaded Ukraine. Russia can end this conflict straight away.” Military experts argue any guidelines agreed for the British weapons at the two-hour summit in Washington could also then pave the way for the Ukrainians to fire U.S.-supplied ATACMS — a tactical ballistic missile system — at airfields and army bases deep inside Russia. (Source: politico.eu)

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2. Russia started producing a new long-range attack drone called the Garpiya-A1 last year using Chinese engines and parts, which it has deployed in the war in Ukraine, according to two sources from a European intelligence agency and documents seen by Reuters. The intelligence – which included a production contract for the new drone, company correspondence on the manufacturing process and financial documents - indicated that IEMZ Kupol, a subsidiary of Russian state-owned weapons maker Almaz-Antey, produced more than 2,500 Garpiyas from July 2023 to July 2024. The existence of the new Russian drone incorporating Chinese technology has not been previously reported. IEMZ Kupol and Almaz-Antey did not respond to requests for comment. (Source: reuters.com)

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3. Russia is piling pressure on Ukraine’s stretched front line in the east, setting up fierce battles for two cities that could bring it closer to achieving its current main military aim. Moscow’s forces are targeting the Ukrainian logistics center of Pokrovsk and trying to seize the high ground in Chasiv Yar. Capturing those two cities would put Russia in position to try to take the rest of the eastern Donetsk region, which President Vladimir Putin has declared part of Russia. Russia has been steadily advancing toward Pokrovsk, with its troops just a few miles outside the city. Pokrovsk is a larger city than Avdiivka—the most recent major Ukrainian city to fall—and Ukraine is fighting for it despite being outgunned and outnumbered. (Source: wsj.com)

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4. The Russian central bank raised its key interest rate by 1 percentage point to 19 per cent earlier today, citing high inflation and strong domestic demand. This is close to the all-time high of 20 per cent that was reached immediately after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. The move is the second consecutive rate rise following a period from late 2023 to the end of July 2024 when it was held at 16 per cent. According to the CBR’s statement, annual inflation in Russia stands at 9 per cent, exceeding its previous forecast. The economy is starting to slow, but domestic demand still significantly exceeds supply and the labour market remains tight, the CBR said. (Source: ft.com)

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