A Saigon Moment.
An existential threat.
“(News Items) is simply the best news digest out there.” — Joe Klein.
1. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi's Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has accused the State Department and "deep state" elements in the U.S. of trying to destabilize India in conjunction with a group of investigative journalists and opposition leader Rahul Gandhi. The accusation comes as a surprise as New Delhi and Washington have forged a strong relationship in the last two decades and both have vowed to further strengthen ties despite some differences and irritants. Gandhi's Congress party used the Organized Crime and Corruption Reporting Project (OCCRP)'s articles that "singularly focused" on the Adani Group and its alleged closeness to the government to undermine Modi, the ruling party said on Thursday. The BJP has previously accused Gandhi, the OCCRP and 92-year-old billionaire financier-philanthropist George Soros of attacking Modi. On Thursday, it cited a French media report that said that OCCRP was funded by the U.S. Agency for International Development and "other deep state figures" like Soros. "The Deep State had a clear objective to destabilize India by targeting Prime Minister Modi," the BJP said in a series of messages on X. "It has always been the U.S. State Department behind this agenda...OCCRP has served as a media tool for carrying out a deep state agenda," it said. (Source: asia.nikkei.com, italics mine)
2. The Bashar al Assad regime faces an existential threat given the widespread collapse of regime forces and lack of sufficient external backing to bolster these forces. Various Syrian groups opposed to Assad, including local opposition in southwestern Syria, the US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), and the Hayat Tahrir al Sham (HTS)-led Fateh Mubin Operations Room, have each rapidly seized territory across Syria in the past 24 hours as Assad regime forces have collapsed. Assad’s backers do not appear willing to bolster the Syrian Arab Army by rapidly deploying additional forces. One source “close to the Kremlin,” for example, told Bloomberg that unless Assad’s forces manage to form a defensive line—a scenario that is becoming increasingly less likely as more and more Syrian regime units break—Russia will not “save” Assad. (Sources: understandingwar.org, bloomberg.com)
3. Syrian rebels say they are closing in on the strategic city of Homs as they push ahead with a lightning advance southwards towards President Bashar al-Assad’s remaining strongholds. “Our forces have liberated the last village on the outskirts of Homs city and are now at its walls,” the rebels said late on Friday evening via their Telegram channel. Homs is the largest city still controlled by Assad’s regime on the highway that leads south to the capital, Damascus. The rebels, led by Islamist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, have already captured Aleppo, Syria’s second city, and Hama, since launching their offensive 11 days ago. The assault poses the most serious threat to Assad’s rule in a decade, reigniting a 13-year civil war that had been largely frozen since 2020. (Source: ft.com)
4. The Wall Street Journal:
A fast-advancing rebel offensive in Syria threatens to dislodge Russia from a strategic linchpin that Moscow has used for a decade to project power in the Middle East, in the Mediterranean and into the African continent.
It also challenges Russian President’s efforts to portray Moscow as a flag bearer for an alternative global order to rival Western liberalism, and his defense of the Syrian regime as evidence of successful pushback against American dominance in the region.
Syria has partly been an ideological project for Putin. The intervention in Syria became a way for Russia to extend its vision of a multipolar world opposed to the Western liberal order, said Nicole Grajewski, fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and author of a coming book on Russia’s relationship with Iran, including in Syria.
“To see Russian planes leave Syria as rebel forces move onward towards their air bases, and their assets in Damascus fall, this would be so devastating for the Russian image of itself,” she said. “It would be akin to a Saigon moment for them.” (Source: wsj.com)
5. Iran yesterday began to evacuate its military commanders and personnel from Syria, according to regional officials and three Iranian officials, in a sign of Iran’s inability to help keep President Bashar al-Assad in power as he faces a resurgent rebel offensive. Among those evacuated to neighboring Iraq and Lebanon were top commanders of Iran’s powerful Quds Forces, the external branch of the Revolutionary Guards Corps, the officials said. The move signaled a remarkable turn for Mr. al-Assad, whose government Iran has backed throughout Syria’s 13-year civil war, and for Iran, which has used Syria as a key route to supply weapons to Hezbollah in Lebanon. (Source: nytimes.com)
6. If the war in Gaza is the worst manifestation yet of the seemingly intractable Israel-Palestinian dispute, which drew in the armed Lebanese group Hezbollah, analysts call the fight for Syria a far more important struggle to dominate a regional crossroads that influences the entire Middle East. “Syria is the barometer for how power dynamics in the region are changing,” said Mona Yacoubian, head of the Middle East and North Africa Center at the United States Institute of Peace in Washington. “It is in for a period of chaos in a region that is already on fire.” Some analysts see the hand of Mr. Erdogan in the sweeping advance of the main Syrian rebel group, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, or the Organization for the Liberation of the Levant. Turkey seized an opportunity to increase its influence at a time when Iran was beleaguered, analysts said, and it wants the three million Syrian refugees who fled to its territory because of the civil war to return home. Damascus is the target, Mr. Erdogan told reporters after Friday prayers in Istanbul. “The opposition’s march continues,” he said. “Our wish is that this march in Syria continues without incident.” (Source: nytimes.com)
7. OpenAI is in discussions to ditch a provision that shuts Microsoft out of its most advanced models when the start-up achieves “artificial general intelligence”, as it seeks to unlock billions of dollars of future investment. Under current terms, when OpenAI creates AGI — defined as a “highly autonomous system that outperforms humans at most economically valuable work” — Microsoft’s access to such a technology would be void. The OpenAI board would determine when AGI is achieved. The start-up is considering removing the stipulation from its corporate structure, enabling the Big Tech group to continue investing in and accessing all OpenAI technology after AGI is achieved, according to multiple people with knowledge of the discussions. A final decision has not been made and options are being discussed by the board, they added. (Source: ft.com)
8. Palantir Technologies is partnering with defense-technology company Anduril Industries to launch a consortium the companies said will ensure that the U.S. government leads the world in artificial intelligence. The companies on Friday said the partnership will focus on solving two main problems: data readiness and processing data at scale. Most useful national security data, such as government data that are collected and created by sensors, vehicles, weapons and robots at the tactical edge, are not retained for AI training and algorithm development, according to the companies. To solve this, they plan to utilize Anduril’s softwares and systems to secure large-scale data retention and distribution. From there, the companies plan to use Palantir’s AI Platform to deliver a cloud-based data management and AI-development capability at the hyper-scale of commercial industries, while still meeting the unique requirements of national security, they say. “Our goal is to deliver the technological infrastructure, from the edge to the enterprise, that can enable our government and industry partners to transform America’s world-leading AI advancements into next-generation military and national security capabilities,” the companies said. (Source: wsj.com, italics mine)
9. The U.S. Air Force is leaving a decision on the future of the next jet fighter to the incoming Trump administration, a move that comes shortly after billionaire Elon Musk called for pursuing drones over piloted combat aircraft. The Air Force is still building F-35 stealth jet fighters, a program whose total costs are expected to exceed $2 trillion over several decades. At the same time, the service is pushing forward with a combat drone system, as well as a next-generation crewed fighter. On Thursday, the Air Force announced that it would delay a decision, originally set for the end of 2024, on which company would build the new jet fighter, meaning it will fall to the new administration to decide whether and how to go forward with the crewed aircraft. (Sources: wsj.com, businessinsider.com, gao.gov)
10. Germany's Alternative for Germany (AfD) will nominate on Saturday its first chancellor candidate in its 11-year history ahead of a snap election set for February as the far-right party increasingly sets its sights on power. The party, which ranks second in opinion polls behind the main opposition conservatives but well ahead of Chancellor Olaf Scholz's Social Democrats, is expected to nominate co-leader Alice Weidel as chancellor candidate. The AFD, which authorities suspect of pursuing anti-democratic goals, is not likely to form part of a governing coalition any time soon given other parties have ruled out working with it. But the AfD's electoral successes are increasing pressure on the conservatives in particular to drop their firewall with the party and consider a right-wing coalition, especially given the weakness of their erstwhile traditional partner, the neoliberal Free Democrats (FDP). (Source: reuters.com)
11. Romania’s constitutional court has cancelled its presidential election after warnings of Russian meddling in the first round of voting, which was won by a nationalist candidate who admires President Putin. The court’s decision to restart the contest scraps a run-off due to be held on Sunday in which Calin Georgescu had been favourite to win, causing alarm across Europe and in the United States owing to his determination to halt support for Ukraine and renegotiate Romania’s role in Nato. (Source: thetimes.com)
12. The Kremlin continues to advance its strategic effort to de facto annex Belarus and further expand the Russian military’s presence in Belarus through the Union State framework. Russian President Vladimir Putin and Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko signed a new Union State treaty on security guarantees at a meeting of the Supreme State Council of the Union State in Minsk, Belarus on December 6. Lukashenko made a public appeal to Putin that Russia deploy Oreshnik ballistic missiles to Belarus under the condition that the Belarusian military-political leadership would determine the Oreshnik's targets should the missile ever launch from Belarusian territory. Putin responded to Lukashenko's request by stating that Russia could deploy Oreshnik systems to Belarus by mid-2025 on the grounds of the new Union State agreement on security guarantees and as Russia scales up the production of Oreshnik ballistic missiles. Putin noted that the new security treaty allows Russia and Belarus to use "all available forces and means" as part of Russia’s and Belarus’ mutual defense obligations. The treaty also requires Russia and Belarus to ensure the security of the Union State's borders, and Putin emphasized that the new document includes the potential use of Russian tactical nuclear weapons deployed in Belarus in the event of aggression against Belarus. (Source: understandingwar.org)
13. The Taliban has ordered all private educational institutions in Afghanistan to cease female medical education, according to two informed sources who spoke on condition of anonymity. The directive from the Taliban's supreme leader, Mullah Haibatullah Akhundzada, was announced on December 2 during a meeting of the extremist group's Public Health Ministry in Kabul. The two sources told RFE/RL that the heads of the private medical institutions affected by the order were summoned to the ministry for the announcement. As a result of the order, all institutions offering training in midwifery, dental prosthetics, nursing, and laboratory sciences are now barred from enrolling or teaching female students, the sources said. Taliban spokesmen were not immediately available for comment. (Source: rferl.org)
14. Paraguay’s anti-drug agency has decided to halt cooperation with the United States, a significant blow to U.S. efforts to curb organized crime in a country where cocaine trafficking has surged. The decision was communicated to the U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration this week and will take effect next year. It jeopardizes several high-level investigations, including the search for Sebastián Marset, the fugitive drug kingpin who bankrolled professional soccer teams across South America and inserted himself into the starting lineups. Paraguay has become a major hub for cocaine shipments from Bolivia to Europe. Paraguayan politicians have been implicated in that boom; senator Erico Galeano, for example, was indicted on a charge of his ties to Marset’s operation. If the cooperation ends, said Deny Yoon Pak, the Paraguayan prosecutor leading the largest investigation into organized crime and drug trafficking in the country’s history, “who is going to investigate for me to capture Sebastián Marset? Nobody.” (Source: washingtonpost.com)
15. Chinese automaker BYD's worldwide electric vehicle sales came close to overtaking Tesla's last quarter, underscoring the rapid progress Chinese players have made in capturing demand beyond their home country. A total of 2.52 million EVs were sold across 55 markets between July and September, up 5% on the year, data from MarkLines shows. Though growth is slowing, sales are still on the rise globally. Tesla maintained its lead with 432,000 vehicles sold, up 2% from a year earlier. Though its sales in the U.S. and Europe declined, the American company saw a recovery in China amid government subsidies there. (Source: asia.nikkei.com)
16. TikTok is one step closer to disappearing in the United States after a panel of federal judges on Friday unanimously upheld a new law that could lead to the banning of the popular Chinese-owned video app by mid-January. The three judges, in the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit, denied TikTok’s petition to overturn the law. The decision could be a death blow for the app in one of its biggest markets. More than 170 million Americans use TikTok to entertain and inform themselves, turning it into a cultural phenomenon. The looming loss of the app in the United States had spurred concern from free speech advocates and from the creators whose income depends on TikTok. The Court’s opinion is here. (Sources: nytimes.com, italics mine, storage.courtlistener.com)
17. When does Chicago collapse?
Despite the massive stock market boom, the Chicago Firefighters pension is only 21.6 percent funded.
Police is 31.1 percent funded. The Teachers’ pension is only 43.4 percent funded.
Illinois’ pension crisis has put taxpayers on the hook for $211 billion in unfunded state and local pension liabilities according to the Illinois Policy Institute.
The Census Reporter shows the population of Illinois is 12.55 million and shrinking. There are 5.07 million households.
If you live in Illinois, your household share is $41,617.
By the way, 11.6 percent of the population is below the poverty line. (Source: mishtalk.com via marypatcampbell.substack.com, italics mine)
18. One in three Americans are stockpiling daily necessities like toilet paper and non-perishable food out of fear that President-elect Donald Trump’s pledge to add tariffs to imported goods will lead to higher prices, according to a new survey. Some 34% of respondents said they are stockpiling items because they are “fearful or uncertain about the future,” according to a December report from CreditCards.com, which publishes information on credit cards and financial literacy. The organization in late November surveyed 2,000 US residents. Overall, the majority of respondents said they would use credit cards for some or most of their purchases this holiday season, with three in 10 planning to go into or take on additional debt. (Sources: bloomberg.com, creditcards.com)
19. US consumer borrowing increased in October by more than forecast, reflecting the largest advance in credit-card balances since mid-2022. Total credit outstanding rose $19.2 billion after a revised $3.2 billion September increase, according to Federal Reserve data released Friday. The median estimate in a Bloomberg survey of economists called for a $10 billion gain. The figures aren’t adjusted for inflation. Revolving debt outstanding, which includes credit cards, surged $15.7 billion. October included Amazon.com Inc.’s Prime Day, as well as similar promotions at Walmart Inc. and Target Corp. (Source: bloomberg.com)
Laure’s Weekend Movie Pick: “Head-On” (2004) directed by Fatih Akin. Two Turkish outcasts in Germany fall in love against the world, and bring their spontaneous romance back to their roots. A glorious, heartfelt tale that exudes humanity, and a breakout film for Turkish German director Akin. It won the Golden Bear at the Berlin film festival. (Sources: imdb.com, dw.com, Laure Sudreau)
Quick Links: Matt Ridley: The truth about the origin of Covid-19 may finally be about to emerge. Is the future leader of Syria the leader of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS)? This FT profile of HTS leader Abu Mohammad al-Jolani is worth reading. Iran ‘dramatically’ increases uranium enrichment as nuclear bomb fears grow. South Korea’s first lady seen as driving force behind President Yoon Suk Yeol declaring martial law this week. South Korea’s president says he is ‘very sorry’ over martial law chaos. The working-class hero leading calls for South Korean president to resign. The Germans flocking to Paraguay to escape immigrants at home. Consumer confidence improved this month on a better assessment of the U.S. economy. Only 6% of federal workers show up in person on a full-time basis, a report from Iowa Sen. Joni Ernst’s office found. If Pete Hegseth makes it to a confirmation vote, will GOP lawmakers dare defy the president-elect? Did Kamala Harris run “a pretty flawless campaign?” According to the campaign’s chief of staff, she did! Great Swami disagrees. Metaphor for city governance: The sidewalks of Los Angeles. Sister Consigliere. A modern nightmare.