American Demographics.
China's population decline is accelerating.
For the first time in generations—since the Great Depression—the prospect of long-term population decline is looming on the American horizon. Almost no serious consideration has yet been devoted to how well America might fare in the face of depopulation. That inattention could prove costly, for depopulation could come upon us with stunning speed.
Fortunately, a depopulating America can still prosper—in theory. The power of human ingenuity and adaptability made the world much richer during the era of the global population explosion. It can do so in an era of long-term population decline as well. American history demonstrates our nation’s exceptional advantages over others in ingenuity and adaptability.
But major changes in policy, practice, and behavior will be required before the US can expect to succeed economically in the terra incognita of population decline. To be blunt: America is not well positioned to pass the stress test that depopulation will unforgivingly impose. In fact, the US may actually be less prepared for an eventual depopulation today than it was a generation ago. (Read the rest. Source: aei.org)
2. Paul Kedrosky:
Falling birth rates shrink the workforce and slow economic growth. This has been economic orthodoxy since Adam Smith. New research finds the (almost) opposite, however.
Countries with larger baby busts eventually had faster output per worker growth, while total economic output remained broadly unchanged. The reason is adaptation: fewer younger workers encouraged firms to automate, invest in labor-saving technologies, and reorganize production. Rather than simply producing less with fewer people, economies changed how they produced, which increased productivity enough to offset a smaller workforce.
