An Immediate Pause.
A profound change.
1. Open Letter from The Future of Life Institute:
AI systems with human-competitive intelligence can pose profound risks to society and humanity, as shown by extensive research and acknowledged by top AI labs. As stated in the widely-endorsed Asilomar AI Principles, Advanced AI could represent a profound change in the history of life on Earth, and should be planned for and managed with commensurate care and resources. Unfortunately, this level of planning and management is not happening, even though recent months have seen AI labs locked in an out-of-control race to develop and deploy ever more powerful digital minds that no one – not even their creators – can understand, predict, or reliably control.
Contemporary AI systems are now becoming human-competitive at general tasks, and we must ask ourselves: Should we let machines flood our information channels with propaganda and untruth? Should we automate away all the jobs, including the fulfilling ones? Should we develop nonhuman minds that might eventually outnumber, outsmart, obsolete and replace us? Should we risk loss of control of our civilization? Such decisions must not be delegated to unelected tech leaders. Powerful AI systems should be developed only once we are confident that their effects will be positive and their risks will be manageable. This confidence must be well justified and increase with the magnitude of a system's potential effects. OpenAI's recent statement regarding artificial general intelligence, states that "At some point, it may be important to get independent review before starting to train future systems, and for the most advanced efforts to agree to limit the rate of growth of compute used for creating new models." We agree. That point is now.
Therefore, we call on all AI labs to immediately pause for at least 6 months the training of AI systems more powerful than GPT-4. This pause should be public and verifiable, and include all key actors. If such a pause cannot be enacted quickly, governments should step in and institute a moratorium.
The letter was signed by 1,125 people (so far), including SpaceX CEO Elon Musk, Skype co-founder Jaan Tallinn, Apple co-founder Steve Wozniak and MIT researchers. (Sources: futureoflife.org, news.yahoo.com)
2. John Pomfret and Matt Pottinger:
Chinese leader Xi Jinping says he is preparing for war. At the annual meeting of China’s parliament and its top political advisory body in March, Xi wove the theme of war readiness through four separate speeches, in one instance telling his generals to “dare to fight.” His government also announced a 7.2 percent increase in China’s defense budget, which has doubled over the last decade, as well as plans to make the country less dependent on foreign grain imports. And in recent months, Beijing has unveiled new military readiness laws, new air-raid shelters in cities across the strait from Taiwan, and new “National Defense Mobilization” offices countrywide.
It is too early to say for certain what these developments mean. Conflict is not certain or imminent. But something has changed in Beijing that policymakers and business leaders worldwide cannot afford to ignore. If Xi says he is readying for war, it would be foolish not to take him at his word. (Sources: johnpomfret.com, hoover.org, foreignaffairs.com)
3. Orville Schell:
I think Xi is a pure Leninist. He does have certain aspirations to reduce the inequalities in Chinese society; but his real focus is on building the wealth and power of the state, and he views party organization as the key to that goal. Lenin, too, was a party builder.
After Deng came to power in the late 1970s, the CPC’s standing and power gradually diminished. During the 1980s, party cells were even removed from state enterprises, and private enterprises were left essentially free from direct party control. But Xi has reversed this, proclaiming that, “East and West, North and South, the Party leads on everything.” He has reinstalled party cells not only in state enterprises but also in private ones. And he has rebuilt the party structure in the classical, Leninist fashion – namely, as a highly disciplined, well-organized political apparatus that can rule at home while also seeking to control what happens abroad.
This is done through the party’s immensely well-funded and well-organized United Front organizations, which are now dedicated “to telling the China story well.” To that end, they have appropriated a massive infusion of funds and institutional firepower to work abroad through media, Confucius institutes, cultural exchanges, universities, civil-society organizations, philanthropy, and other channels – all seeking to influence how people overseas view China. (Source: project-syndicate.org)
4. More from Orville Schell:
My own view is that, whether you are from Blackstone or Morgan Stanley, you would have to be deluded not to see which way the wind is blowing. Despite ongoing reliance on China for many supply chains, deeper economic ties are not in the offing, because such co-dependence now comes with huge geopolitical risks.
So, the wind is blowing more and more ferociously in the direction of decoupling, even though that process is neither easy nor welcome. Yes, some US and foreign companies – such as the stalwarts of Germany’s auto industry – have not yet reconciled themselves with the new reality. CEOs do not like to countenance gloomy and disruptive scenarios. But all they have to do is look at what has happened in Ukraine. If China were to move against Taiwan, it would make the fallout from the war in Eastern Europe look like child’s play.
If companies wait until China attacks Taiwan – or until there is some military accident in the South China Sea or an explosion of tensions with Japan over the Senkaku Islands – it will already be too late to devise a Plan B. Those companies risk losing everything. Some corporate leaders still cannot believe that the era of “engagement” is over, and that China could end up in a conflict with the US. But they need to wake up. I am not predicting a conflict, but such a prediction is becoming impossible to dismiss. (Source: project-syndicate.org. The entire interview is worth reading in full.)
5. Former president Jair Bolsonaro is expected to return to Brazil tomorrow for the first time since leaving office, aiming to revitalize the country’s far-right movement but facing the possibility of a ban from politics or even arrest. Bolsonaro’s likely return from Florida is set to complicate the presidency of his successor and political nemesis, leftwing leader Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, if the ex-president succeeds in mobilising the opposition. Since leaving Brazil in December to avoid Lula’s inauguration, Bolsonaro has continued his populist style of politics while living in Orlando, Florida — regularly greeting and embracing supporters and dining at fast food restaurants, including at the opening of a burger restaurant this week. At the same time several investigations have been opened against the former leader in Brazil, including embezzlement claims over $3 million of jewelery said to have been a gift from the Saudi government, and accusations of incitement relating to the storming of political institutions by his radical supporters on January 8. (Source: ft.com)
6. Eurointelligence:
Don't be deceived by the fall in the headline numbers of French protestors. This is not yet a sign of de-escalation. Some stayed away from protests after violent clashes last Thursday. Others, like the garbage collectors in Paris, needed to return back to work after more than ten days of strikes. The numbers in the big cities are also misleading. It is the small towns where large crowds have been mobilized, ready to radicalize further.
Those small to mid-sized towns are at the forefront of the battle against Emmanuel Macron and his pension reform with participation reaching historic levels, writes France24. There are towns where a quarter, a third and in some cases even half of their inhabitants were on the streets. These communes have a high proportion of civil servants and blue-collar employees, all of those overrepresented in the protests. Since the government triggered Art. 49.3 to overrule parliament, they were joined by a new group: the young, in particular students from universities and schools. The soundbites from those crowds is that they are ready to ramp up their protests. A show of power of the powerless against the powerful. (Source: eurointelligence.com, france24.com)
7. After months of protests, Israel’s opposition prepared for talks over paused government plans to restrict the independence of the judiciary. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu—who has pushed for the change while facing corruption charges—has earned a reputation for pulling off political escape acts before. The delay gives negotiators on both sides to the end of July to come up with a compromise—and will give Netanyahu and his far-right government time to recalculate after a spectacular underestimation of public fury at what opponents consider an anti-democratic power grab. (Source: bloomberg.com/newsletters/news)
8. U.S. President Joe Biden's statement yesterday that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will not be invited anytime soon to the White House shocked and surprised the PM's office and underscored the simmering diplomatic tensions the premier was hoping to allay. While Netanyahu aides drew encouragement from Ambassador Tom Nides' statement that the premier would be invited to the White House after Passover, Washington's tone escalated throughout the day and culminated with what was perceived as a humiliating statement by Biden. The president's words reflected the U.S. administration's concerns over Netanyahu's control of his own government and doubts that the judicial coup is really off the table. At the heart of Biden's statement, it seems, lies an assessment that the Israeli prime minister must be reined in. (Source: haaretz.com)
9. As the Ukraine war continues into its second year and Western sanctions bite harder, Russia’s government revenue is being squeezed and its economy has shifted to a lower-growth trajectory, likely for the long term. The country’s biggest exports, gas and oil, have lost major customers. Government finances are strained. The ruble is down over 20% since November against the dollar. The labor force has shrunk as young people are sent to the front or flee the country over fears of being drafted. Uncertainty has curbed business investment. “Russia’s economy is entering a long-term regression,” predicted Alexandra Prokopenko, a former Russian Central Bank official who left the country shortly after the invasion. (Source: wsj.com)
10. Anyone out there betting the US Federal Reserve will actually cut rates this year has got it very wrong, says BlackRock. The world’s biggest money manager has taken a dim view of Wall Street wishful thinkers who expect rate cuts, given the continuing risk of recession. But BlackRock’s position runs counter to that of TD Securities and DoubleLine Capital, both of which contend the Fed is mistaken about the need to keep raising rates. The collapse of three mid-size US banks and the forced marriage of Credit Suisse to UBS may have prompted a rethink by some on monetary policy, but Fed Chair Jerome Powell made clear with a fresh rate hike that the inflation fight will go on. (Source: bloomberg.com/newsletters/news)
11. Defaults and vacancies are on the rise at high-end office buildings, in the latest sign that remote work and rising interest rates are spreading pain to more corners of the commercial real-estate market. For much of the pandemic, buildings in central locations that feature modern amenities fared better than their less-pricey peers. Some even were able to increase rents while older, cheaper buildings saw surging vacancy rates and plummeting values. Now, these so-called class-A properties, whose rents generally fall into a city’s top quartile, are increasingly coming under pressure. (Source: wsj.com)
12. Alarmed by an even faster than expected slide in the number of babies born in Japan last year, Prime Minister Fumio Kishida is preparing a policy package he says is a last chance to keep society functioning. Ideas like compulsory paternity leave, canceling student debt for people who have a baby, and ¥10 million ($76,445) payouts for a third child have been thrown around in recent weeks. While some of these are controversial and won’t make it into the final program, Kishida has promised measures “on a different dimension” from previous efforts. As part of the fresh attempt at tackling the issue, a new agency devoted to children and families is set to open its doors on April 1, and the government will lay out a path to doubling spending on them by June. Kishida has begun floating some of the proposals and more details are expected by the end of the month. (Source: bloomberg.com)
13. There’s no real question that a central reason the United States has so many firearm deaths is that the United States has so many firearms. What question there is, instead, centers on that latter point: How many guns are there in this country? While there are no hard counts of the number of firearms in the country — in part because pro-gun advocacy organizations are wary of having the government know where guns might be found — there are estimates. One, from Switzerland-based Small Arms Survey, figures that there are 120.5 civilian-owned guns for every 100 U.S. residents. That’s nearly twice the ratio as seen in the second-ranked region, the Falkland Islands, and more than twice the ratio seen in Yemen, which comes in third. (Source: hsph.harvard.edu, smallarmssurvey.org, washingtonpost.com)
14. The AR-15 fires bullets at such a high velocity — often in a barrage of 30 or even 100 in rapid succession — that it can eviscerate multiple people in seconds. A single bullet lands with a shock wave intense enough to blow apart a skull and demolish vital organs. The impact is even more acute on the compact body of a small child. “It literally can pulverize bones, it can shatter your liver and it can provide this blast effect,” said Joseph Sakran, a gunshot survivor who advocates for gun violence prevention and a trauma surgeon at Johns Hopkins Hospital. During surgery on people shot with high-velocity rounds, he said, body tissue “literally just crumbled into your hands.” (Source: washingtonpost.com)
15. IBM and the Cleveland Clinic unveiled a quantum computer that could advance medical innovation like never before. The IBM Quantum System One was created to crunch large amounts of data at high speeds. The quantum computer is now operational on the clinic's Ohio campus. The computer installation is part of a 10-year collaboration between IBM and Cleveland called the Discovery Accelerator. "This is a pivotal milestone in our innovative partnership with IBM, as we explore new ways to apply the power of quantum computing to healthcare," said Tom Mihaljevic, M.D., CEO of Cleveland Clinic, in a press statement. It is said to be the world's first quantum computer solely dedicated to healthcare research. (Sources: interestingengineering.com, newsroom.ibm.com)
16. Hundreds of millions of people worldwide suffer from Alzheimer’s and mental health conditions such as depression and anxiety, but these are still under-diagnosed or detected too late for optimal intervention. Startup Accexible is trying to change that, based on the premise that early signs of certain conditions might be seen—or heard—in a person’s voice. “Accexible works at the intersection of neuroscience, linguistics, and mathematics,” said Carla Zaldua Aguirre, the company’s CEO, speaking at WIRED Health this March. Accexible’s product—which is accessible on computer, app, or through a phone call—assesses the linguistic content of someone’s speech, as well as how they’re speaking, to identify changes that may indicate an underlying problem. Aguirre promises 90 percent accuracy and results in just a few minutes. The idea is that general practitioners can use the app as a screening test and neurologists can use it to monitor how their patients progress over time. (Source: wired.com)
17. A class of Alzheimer’s drugs that aims to slow cognitive decline, including the antibody lecanemab that was granted accelerated approval in the United States in January, can cause brain shrinkage, researchers report in a new analysis. Although scientists and drug developers have documented this loss of brain volume in clinical trial participants for years, the scientific review, published yesterday in Neurology, is the first to look at data across numerous studies. It also links the brain shrinkage to a better known side effect of the drugs, brain swelling, which often presents without symptoms. “We don’t fully know what these changes might imply,” says Jonathan Jackson, a cognitive neuroscientist at Massachusetts General Hospital. But, “These data are extremely concerning, and it’s likely these changes are detrimental.” (Sources: fda.gov, science.org, n.neurology.org)
18. At a hearing Tuesday in Dominion Voting System’s lawsuit, Delaware Superior Court Judge Eric Davis cited a letter from Fox claiming Rupert Murdoch’s age and lack of direct control over election coverage warranted allowing his testimony to rest on his January deposition. Davis said he had heard that the 92-year-old Fox Corp. chairman had publicly discussed his extensive plans to travel while celebrating his St. Patrick’s Day engagement to Ann Lesley Smith, 66. “That doesn’t sound like someone who can’t go from New York to Wilmington,” the judge said during the hearing conducted over the phone. “Let’s get the story straight on these types of things so I don’t look like an idiot if I rule on something.” (Source: bloomberg.com)
Quick Links: UBS brings back Sergio Ermotti as CEO to oversee Credit Suisse “integration.” Top ECB official claims CDS market ‘contaminates’ bank stocks and deposit flows. Traders are pulling billions of dollars from Binance. JPMorgan’s Jamie Dimon to be deposed in Epstein lawsuits. Insanity: Ivy League prices are pushing $90,000 a year. News Items to the rescue: Learn how to write better ChatGPT prompts.
Political Links: Pakistan PM urges parliament to act against ex-premier Khan. Ganesh: Spain’s fix for pension shortfall: make younger people pay. Western voters won’t give up the peace dividend. The Democratic-funded candidate in Wisconsin’s pivotal state Supreme Court contest has raised more than five times as much money as her Republican-backed opponent ahead of the April 4 election.
Science/Technology Links: Do watch this: The "Godfather of artificial intelligence" — Geoffrey Hinton — weighs in on the past and potential of AI. Big Tech companies cut AI ethics staffers raising safety concerns. The $52 billion chipmaking plan is racing toward failure. The global chip shortage has gratefully begun to recede.
War: U.S. to withhold nuclear data from Russia in escalation of tensions. Pentagon prepares for space warfare as potential threats from China, Russia grow. New algorithm keeps drones from colliding in midair.
"An Immediate Pause"
Supreme court justices should not pick their replacements.