“It’s the first thing I read every day.” — Brigadier General (retired) Russ Howard, founding director of The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point.
1. Iran has been invited to join the Mecca Agreement for Mutual Defense, the new security alliance established by Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan earlier this month, Al Mayadeen reported on Saturday, citing a senior Iranian official. The invitation has not yet been officially confirmed by Iran’s Foreign Ministry or by any of the three countries that are parties to the agreement. Mehdi Rahimi, head of the Iranian parliament’s Khaneh Mellat news agency, told the channel that “Iran has received an invitation to join the Mecca Agreement, and the matter is under review.” Rahimi added that countries in the region “are moving toward seeking a regional security umbrella,” and claimed that this represented “a victory for Iran, because it has been calling for this for a long time.” The Mecca Agreement was signed on August 7 by Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif. The agreement establishes a principle of mutual defense under which an attack on any one of the three countries would be considered an attack on all of them. (Sources: jpost.com, english.almayadeen.net. If this report from Al Mayadeen is true, it’s an important story. We do not regard Al Mayadeen as a “trusted source”.)
2. Institute for the Study of War:
There is no indication that economic pressure on the regime has changed the anti-concessions position of some top Iranian officials, even while a group of Iranian officials responsible for managing the economy (“realists”) are increasingly warning that worsening economic pressure could threaten regime stability. These officials also appear to openly advocate ending the war to reduce the economic cost to the regime. There appear to be two loose groups of Iranian leaders that have influence at this time. One, the pro-concessions or “realist” camp, is responsible for managing the economy and ostensibly answers to a voting constituency of everyday Iranians. These include Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian and Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, among others. A second group, which includes Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) Commander Major General Ahmad Vahidi, does not favor any concessions in negotiations and seeks full US surrender. This group is relatively stronger and more ideological.
