Bigger Than Goldman.

And Morgan Stanley too.

Subscriber Note: The weekend edition of News Items will be distributed this weekend. It might not be distributed tomorrow morning. We’ll see.

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1. Hal Brands and Michael Beckley.

The U.S. is running out of time to prevent a cataclysmic war in the Western Pacific. While the world has been focused on Vladimir Putin’s aggression in Ukraine, Xi Jinping appears to be preparing for an even more consequential onslaught against Taiwan. Mr. Xi’s China is fueled by a dangerous mix of strength and weakness: Faced with profound economic, demographic and strategic problems, it will be tempted to use its burgeoning military power to transform the existing order while it still has the opportunity.

This peaking-power syndrome—the tendency for rising states to become more aggressive as they become more fearful of impending decline—has caused some of the bloodiest wars in history. Unless the U.S. and its allies act quickly, it could trigger a conflict that would make the war in Ukraine look minor by comparison. (Source: wwnorton.com, wsj.com)

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2. Charles Hutzler:

Beijing sees Taiwan as Chinese territory to be taken by force if necessary and has undertaken a decades-long military buildup to achieve that goal and deter the U.S., the island’s longtime security partner. Still, many military analysts and China specialists think Beijing lacks capabilities to launch an outright invasion, making such an operation too complex and risky in the next few years.

Instead, in a crisis, they think Beijing would try to squeeze rather than flatten Taiwan into submission.

“They are amassing forces to look like a blockade to show that they can do it,” said Bryan Clark, a senior fellow at the Hudson Institute, a conservative think tank in Washington. “It’s a signaling exercise.” (Source: wsj.com)

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