Campaign Update

News Items/Political Items Weekend Edition.

What follows was first posted at Political News Items. It’s a (relatively) quick read on the the U.S. presidential election’s “state of play”.

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1. Three “issues” that begin with the letter “i” threaten President Biden’s re-election campaign. They are: inflation, immigration, and infirmity (a.k.a. “age”).

There’s not much the Biden campaign can do about inflation. Saying it’s “improving” isn’t going to work. It isn’t going to “get better” by election day. The price of food might stabilize. The price of gasoline might come down a bit. But not enough. And the cost of credit won’t budge. It takes more than five months for Fed rate cuts to work their way through “the system.” And there’s no guarantee that the Fed will be cutting rates any time soon.

The Biden campaign’s assertion that the immigration “issue” can be “turned” to the president’s advantage is delusional. Trump’s advantage on the issue is prohibitive and “baked in.”

The infirmity “issue” isn’t going to get better. The president gets a day older, every day. Asserting that he’s “as sharp as ever” behind closed doors isn’t believable if he continues to shuffle around, verbally and physically, in public. There’s a reason he doesn’t hold news conferences. He’s not “as sharp as ever.”

There are two other major problems. One is that the president is a terrible candidate on “the stump.” Instead of looking strong, he looks like he’s trying to appear strong. Instead of talking confidently (and appearing confident) about the future, he seems fixated on the past and out of step with the present. Instead of talking comfortably and fluently about the choice, he sounds like he’s rote-reading the latest talking points from his campaign’s pollster.

His campaign advisors saw the 40th anniversary of Operation Overlord (D-Day) as a golden opportunity to compare and contrast the president with his opponent. Alas, the contrast that emerged was not with Mr. Trump, but with former President Reagan. Watching Reagan’s performance in 1984 and Biden’s performance this week was yet more evidence that Biden lacks “what it takes” to meet a “big moment.” Efforts by the “Dominant Media” (to borrow Mark Halperin’s phrase) to persuade us otherwise seemed and seem dishonest.

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