Curious Phenomenon.
Pumping iron.
News Items is as invaluable a way to start the day as a strong cup of coffee or a sip of mild gin” — Graydon Carter, editor and author of ‘When The Going Was Good’.
1. President Trump has vowed to “assume total control” of Iran’s main oil and gas markets in a dramatic escalation of his threats as he tries to pressure Tehran into agreeing to a deal that would reopen the Strait of Hormuz. In a post on his Truth Social platform, Trump said the US would hit Iran “very hard tonight”, adding that he intended to seize the key oil export hub of Kharg Island and other parts of the country’s oil infrastructure. The president has previously mooted the possibility of the US seizing Kharg, but analysts have warned it would represent a huge escalation, require putting boots on the ground and risk American casualties. (Source: ft.com)
2. Mr. Trump yesterday insisted the U.S. was nearing a deal on peace talks with Iran, pulling back from his threats just hours earlier to launch more military strikes and seize Iran’s oil infrastructure. Trump said Iranian Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei had signed off on the plan, which he said would be completed in coming days, paving the way for additional talks on Iran’s nuclear program. Tehran said it hadn’t decided. “Iran hasn’t reached a final conclusion about the agreement,” Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei said, according to state media. “We will announce it when we reach a conclusion.” (Source: wsj.com)
3. Eurointelligence:
Western economic institutions and market observers are still basing their forecasts on a scenario that the war in Iran will be short and that the geopolitical situation will return to normal soon. But the signals we are getting from Iran suggests a more unsettling scenario, that of a long drawn-out war. The problem the media has is that there has been no written official document from the Iranian regime so far, just a few statements here and there. Yesterday we finally got a document, the Editorial no 346 from Khamenei.ir, the official website of Iran’s supreme leader (hat tip to former Middle East diplomat Alastair Crooke).
The document is written in Farsi. Translated, it claims that the regional order of West Asia after the war will be the regional order of Iran’s resistance bloc. Iran will not return to the pre-war era neither regarding the strait of Hormuz, US military presence in the region or Iran’s security equation in the region. And the new leitmotiv is: From Hormuz to Beirut.
If that sounds threatening to Lebanon and Israel, it is because it is. It suggests that no compromise will be accepted in negotiations for the sake of getting a deal done. It suggests that Iran wants to integrate Hezbollah in Lebanon even more into Iran’s security infrastructure. The editorial is full of dismissive comments about the US not being able to achieve their goals and lost its way. And it is full of praise for Iran’s epic resistance.
The hardship for the Iranian population, meanwhile, is real. Inflation is over 100%, millions who normally use the internet to sell things could not due to the internet shutdown for nearly three months, with service reinstated only at the end of May. Even if imports are coming in through Iran’s long land borders, they are far from what they used to be. But economic hardship does not mean the regime gives in. (Source: eurointelligence.com. Italics mine.)
