Deal Undone.
Episode #24 of 'Alternate Shots'.
Last Thursday evening, Richard (Haass) distributed his weekly Substack newsletter, Home & Away. It was surprisingly optimistic — cautiously optimistic, to be sure —from someone whose views on the Iran war have been devoid of wishful thinking. Excerpt:
The principal reality now is that neither the United States nor Iran would benefit from a resumption of fighting. We have all but run out of targets, and the Trump administration should have learned by now that bombing will not lead Iran to capitulate. Nor will it produce regime change.
As for Iran, it has already shown it is both willing and able to disrupt shipping and threaten the energy infrastructure of its neighbors. But carrying out such a threat at this stage would lead to the destruction of its own energy infrastructure, making economic recovery all but impossible. Closing the Bab el-Mandeb through Houthi military action is another possibility for the regime, but it would not help the Iranian economy.
There is also reason to believe that China, which is heavily dependent on not just Iranian but also the broader region’s oil and gas, has no interest in a widening of the war at this time. And when it comes to the blockade, China complains but is highly unlikely to challenge it directly. Indeed, there are reports that China’s veteran foreign minister Wang Yi has weighed in with his Iranian counterpart, urging that the Strait be an open waterway.
All of which is to suggest that an extension of the current two-week ceasefire is likely, as is the resumption of direct negotiations. (Source: richardhaass.substack.com)
It’s unclear what, exactly, sparked yesterday’s “resumption of hostilities”, but by the end of the day, ceasefire was off the menu. Richard is no doubt correct asserting the "resumption of direct negotiations” is inevitable, possibly beginning tomorrow in Islamabad. But there’s no denying, for the moment anyway, negotiations are stalled and hostilities are not.
That’s what this week’s episode of ‘Alternate Shots’ is about: How cautious optimism turned to an end to the ceasefire, and why.
We also discussed Peter Magyar’s landslide defeat of Viktor Orban in last Sunday’s Turkish elections, President Trump’s baffling decision to attack Pope Leo and, in our “sports section”, the beginning of the end of the LIV golf tour. Inevitably, there were lame jokes about “sand traps”.
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(‘Alternate Shots’ Episode #24. Produced by Dale Eisinger. Recorded 18 April 2024.)
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