1. French presidential election basic facts:
April 10, 2022, Round 1, all qualified candidates on the ballot.
April 24, 2022, Round 2, run-off between the top two finishers in Round 1.
Polls: President Emmanuel Macron leads with ~25%. Three others, all to his right, are in the high-to-lower-teens.
Marine Le Pen (Rassemblement national party) will lose the run-off election, if she makes it, because that’s her lot in life.
The candidate with the best chance of defeating Macron (at this stage) is Valérie Pécresse (Les Républicains party).
The candidate who may prevent Marine Le Pen from making the run-off, Éric Zemmour (Reconquête “party”), started his campaign with a flourish but has since fallen back.
The others have yet to break into double digits. And they won’t.
The press narrative of the campaign (to date) has been: The electorate is not enamored of Macron and would gladly vote for an acceptable alternative, but there isn’t one, yet. Valerie Pecresse may turn out to be the acceptable (enough) alternative, but the jury on her is out. If you’re betting, the safe bet is Macron.
The most glaring fact of the campaign (to date) has been the evaporation of the Left. Not so long ago, April 22, 2012 to be exact, Socialist Party standard-bearer Francois Hollande was elected president with 52% of the vote. The Socialist Party candidate this time around, Anne Hidalgo, is currently polling at ~3 percent.
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