Escalation Ladder.

Testosterone deficiency.

“News Items is the first thing I read every morning”. — David Brooks.

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1. The United States intensified its strikes on Iran earlier today, hitting targets further north as American forces also fired into a ship it accused of trying to break its naval blockade on the Islamic Republic. Iran retaliated with missile and drone fire targeting U.S. allies in the region before dawn and warned its attacks may escalate. Days of back-and-forth strikes by the U.S. and Iran across the Middle East — and renewed threats to the Strait of Hormuz — have shredded the interim deal to end the Iran war and could tip the region back into all-out war. Already, Iranian officials say U.S. strikes have killed more than 35 people and wounded over 300 others. Strikes also reached into areas around Iran’s capital, Tehran, for the first time in this latest round of violence, showing a widening set of targets for the Americans. (Source: apnews.com)

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2. President Trump is leaning toward expanding U.S. military operations in Iran after days of briefings from top aides, U.S. officials said. Options include stepping up airstrikes, sending ground forces to seize Iranian islands near the Strait of Hormuz and bombing a fortified site that could be used for covert nuclear work. Trump hosted a Situation Room meeting Tuesday evening to discuss the potential seizure of Kharg Island and other territory along the Strait of Hormuz using U.S. troops, as well as the potential bombing of a tunnel complex at Pickaxe Mountain, a nuclear-linked site the U.S. has yet to target. Expanding airstrikes against more targets in Iran, including energy sites, also remains a possibility. (Source: wsj.com)

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3. Robert Pape:

(Yesterday), Iran used heavy anti-ship missiles with up to 1000 pound warheads against tankers in the Strait of Hormuz. This marks a shift from controlled brinkmanship to high-risk, uncontrolled escalation. By deploying weapons capable of catastrophic damage, Iran is creating a scenario where potential U.S. casualties could trigger an unavoidable, massive retaliatory response.

In recent days, numerous U.S. Navy ships are dangerously repositioned close to Iran’s coast, well within Iran’s anti-ship cruise missile range. A 1,000-pound cruise missile warhead delivers catastrophic, ship-sinking destruction, far eclipsing minor drone strikes. Even 30-40 U.S. casualties would instantly shatter diplomatic options, forcing an uncontrollable, public-fueled demand for payback that could lock both sides into a costly spiral of escalation.

From that moment forward, the political logic of the war changes. (Source: escalationtrap.substack.com)