Go Ask ALICE.

A flexible set of scenarios.

---

1. When oil jumped above $90 a barrel just days ago, military tensions between Israel and Iran were the immediate trigger. But the rally’s foundations went deeper — to global supply shocks that are intensifying fears of a commodity-driven inflation resurgence. A recent move by Mexico to slash its crude exports is compounding a global squeeze, prompting refiners in the US — the world’s biggest oil producer — to consume more domestic barrels. American sanctions have stranded Russian cargoes at sea, with Venezuelan supply a potential next target. Houthi rebel attacks on tankers in the Red Sea have delayed crude shipments. And despite the turmoil, OPEC and its allies are sticking with their production cuts. It all adds up to a magnitude of supply disruption that has taken traders by surprise. The crunch is turbocharging an oil rally ahead of the US summer driving season, threatening to push Brent crude, the global benchmark, to $100 for the first time in almost two years. (Source: bloomberg.com)