Iran, Cuba, Trump.
It’s passing strange, politically speaking, that President Trump has chosen to bring the United States to the brink of war, or something like that, in the Middle East. The president knows his political base. He knows what they will abide and what they will not. And he knows that they will not abide a war in the Middle East.
What they might or and perhaps will abide is some kind of “decisive” strike against the Iranian regime; one that disables some of its ballistic missiles or destroys parts of its nuclear program or forces its leadership to negotiate some sort of deal that constrains their ability to wreak havoc in the region and beyond. But that’s it. Any suggestion of “mission creep” is a non-starter. Any over-long stay is a betrayal of Trump’s solemn promise of no more foreign adventures.
Iran knows this too. So, strategically-speaking, it needs to do everything in its power to rope-a-dope the United States: “Hit us again, harder and harder, until you’ve exhausted your available resources and the patience of your political base. And then you’ll have to retreat and we will have defeated the Great Satan again.” That’s the general idea.
And the way to do that is to take the initial (presumably heavy) hits and respond in such a way (attacks on U.S. bases, Saudi oil facilities, Israeli military installations, foreign embassies, etc.) that sucks the U.S. deeper into something like war. Not “boots on the ground” war, but “ladder of escalation” war; one that soon involves other regional powers, including (especially) Saudi Arabia, and turns days into weeks and weeks into months. The deeper the U.S. gets sucked in, the sooner support for “Trump’s war in the Middle East” will collapse (in the U.S. and amongst its allies in the region).
Here’s something you never imagined you would read on the “front page” of one of the nation’s leading newspapers:
The Pentagon is raising concerns to President Trump about an extended military campaign against Iran, advising that war plans being considered carry risks including U.S. and allied casualties, depleted air defenses and an overtaxed force.
