It's a Bird. It's a Plane.

It's a Chinese spy balloon.

1. Ali Vaez:

The Islamic Republic (of Iran) is now where the Soviet Union was in the early 1980s. The system is ideologically bankrupt, at a political dead end, and incapable of addressing its structural economic and societal troubles. It still has the will to fight, as evidenced by its brutal response to the uprisings. But no amount of force will end the standoff with its people, which is primarily the result of the regime’s failures across the board. There is little left of the promises made during the 1979 revolution to build a shining, pious city on a hill. In practice, the regime has created a militarized republic of fear in which mediocrity is glorified and mendacity institutionalized. The Islamic Republic’s architects vowed there would be egalitarian prosperity for all, but instead, they delivered affluence for a few and ruined what was once a booming economy. They promised paradise on earth and then dried out the land and polluted the air, imperiling a civilization that has survived for 7,000 years.

The Islamic Republic is now a hollow misnomer. It is a theocracy that has inadvertently secularized the population. It is a republic that has demolished the participatory base it once used to legitimize its rule. (Sources: crisisgroup.org, foreignaffairs.com)

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2. Barry Naughton and Briana Boland:

This report has made clear that CCP Inc. refers to a fundamental set of institutional arrangements for managing and steering the Chinese economy. These arrangements are novel and different enough from previous ones to warrant a new label; this project proposes “CCP Inc.” The report has also shown that important changes in the CCP Inc. model have occurred in the past few years, following a consistent logic of strengthening the CCP’s direct control over state actors, diversifying available instruments of influence, and increasing indirect controls over private actors. Despite heightening the party’s capabilities, the changes have, on balance, increased the challenges faced by CCP Inc. decisionmakers and perhaps made the model less effective. There is more risk and less certainty or unity of purpose among the constituent actors of CCP Inc. Information f lows about economic actions are less smooth and provide less useful information. There is an unusually high level of policy uncertainty in China today and an increased global (and local) backlash against its activities. These changes suggest that the CCP Inc. system will be less efficient and face more obstacles going forward.

This lower efficiency, however, is complemented by party leaders’ greater ambition. CCP Inc. has committed to an even more ambitious form of industrial policy and to achieving technological self-reliance. The way the Russian invasion of Ukraine has intensified the global East–West split has put new pressure on Chinese activities worldwide. This will undoubtedly have an enduring impact in Europe, destroying China’s peripheral strategy among Eastern and Central European states. (Source: csis.org)