Letter of Intent.
Deepening war fatigue.
Ed. Note: News Items is off the grid for the long Memorial Day weekend. It returns on Tuesday, 26 May. We will be posting some notes at Political News Items.
1. Ukraine and its allies are increasingly confident that Russia’s invasion is running out of steam as Kyiv stabilizes the front line and stalls a spring offensive by Moscow. Ukraine’s growing effectiveness at deploying drones to inflict heavy Russian troop losses is being matched by strikes behind the front lines and deep inside Russia that are stoking increasing domestic criticism of President Vladimir Putin. Alongside an economic slowdown and restrictions on the internet, that’s leading to a deepening war fatigue among ordinary Russians. The nervous mood is shared by many in Russia’s elite, with some senior Kremlin officials believing the conflict has reached a dead end with no clear way to resolve it, people familiar with the situation said. (Source: bloomberg.com)
2. Robert Kagan:
The outlines of President Trump’s endgame in the Iran war are now emerging. In a phone call with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu (on Wednesday), Trump reportedly explained that the United States was negotiating a “letter of intent” with Iran that would “formally end the war and launch a 30-day period of negotiations” on Iran’s nuclear program and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. The purpose and effect of such an agreement should be clear: The United States is walking away from the crisis. Trump may launch another limited strike to look tough and satisfy the demands of the war’s supporters, but it would be a performative gesture. Endgame in this case is a euphemism for “surrender.”
Trump’s repeated threats to resume attacks since then have proved to be bluffs. The leaders in Tehran have been calculating for two months that Trump would not launch another attack, and for this reason they have made no concessions despite the damage they suffered from 37 days of relentless strikes. On the contrary, their terms for a settlement are those of a victor: They demand war reparations, no limits on uranium enrichment, recognized control of the strait, and an end to sanctions.
For Trump to respond to this defiance by now calling for another 30 days of cease-fire and talks is a tacit admission of defeat. If he does launch a performative attack in the next few days, the Iranians will understand it for what it is. No one believes that he is going to resume a full-scale war a month from now. (Source: theatlantic.com)
3. An attack on a nuclear power plant in the United Arab Emirates has raised fears about the scope of Iran’s retaliation to a potential US resumption of strikes, with experts highlighting the greater role Tehran-backed militias in Iraq are playing in the war. The UAE said this week that a drone targeting its Barakah plant on Sunday was launched from Iraq, condemning it as a “terrorist” act. Anwar Gargash, a senior adviser to President Sheikh Mohamed Bin Zayed, blamed “Iranian militias in Iraq” for the incident, in a social media post. It’s “a grave indicator of the scale of the threat facing the region,” Gargash said. The incident forced the plant to activate backup power, one of the last lines of defense to maintain nuclear safety. (Source: bloomberg.com)
4. Iran’s Supreme Leader has issued a directive that the country’s near-weapons-grade uranium should not be sent abroad, two senior Iranian sources said, hardening Tehran’s stance on one of the main U.S. demands at peace talks. Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei’s order could further frustrate U.S. President Donald Trump and complicate talks on ending the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran. Trump vowed on Thursday that the United States will not allow Iran to have its stockpile of highly enriched uranium. “We will get it. We don’t need it, we don’t want it. We’ll probably destroy it after we get it, but we’re not going to let them have it,” Trump told reporters at the White House. Israeli officials have told Reuters that Trump has assured Israel that Iran’s stockpile of highly enriched uranium, needed to make an atomic weapon, will be sent out of Iran and that any peace deal must include a clause on this. (Source: reuters.com)
5. Iran has discussed partnering with the Gulf state of Oman — an American ally — in a system charging fees for vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz, ignoring the Trump administration’s warnings against demands for payment to pass through the critical international waterway. It is unclear whether anything concrete will come out of the discussions. But the talks appear to signal that the United States and Iran are no closer to ending a war that has badly damaged the global economy despite repeated claims to the contrary by President Trump. At least publicly, neither side has shown a willingness to compromise. (Source: nytimes.com)
