Logistics.

Election Day in Canada.

“If I could only open one thing each morning it would be John Ellis’s News Items newsletter.” — Larry Summers, President Emeritus of Harvard University and former Secretary of the Treasury of the United States.

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1. Emigration from Africa will change the world. The growth stems from the extraordinary demographic divergence between Africa, the world’s youngest continent with the fastest-growing population, and everywhere else. Labour is becoming more abundant in Africa and scarcer in many other places. As a result, argue Kathryn Foster and Matthew Hall, demographers at Cornell University, “The future of migration will be African in origin.” Earlier this year McKinsey, a consultancy, published a report on the “new demographic reality”. It notes that a “first wave” of countries including America, China, Japan, South Korea and all of Europe will see their working-age population (15- to 64-year-olds) shrink by about 340m by 2050. Longer lives and, especially, falling fertility rates, mean the “support ratio” of working-age people to those over 65 in these places has dropped from 7:1 in 1997 to 4:1 today. By 2050 it will be just 2:1. A shift is also under way in emerging economies. By 2060, according to UN forecasts, the support ratio will fall from 6.2:1 to 2.3:1 in Brazil and from 7.5:1 to 2.4:1 in Vietnam, notes Michael Clemens of George Mason University. “Nothing like this shockingly rapid disappearance of workers has happened in world history,” he says. The exception is sub-Saharan Africa. (Source: economist.com, italics mine)

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2. Financial Times:

Donald Trump’s trade war with Beijing is starting to affect the wider US economy as container port operators and air freight managers report sharp declines in goods transported from China.

Logistics groups said container bookings to the US have fallen sharply since the introduction of 145 per cent tariffs on Chinese imports to the US.

The Port of Los Angeles, the main route of entry for goods from China, expects scheduled arrivals in the week starting May 4 to be a third lower than a year before, while airfreight handlers have also reported sharp falls in bookings.

Bookings for standard 20-foot shipping containers from China to the US were 45 per cent lower than a year earlier by mid-April, according to the latest available data from container tracking service Vizion. (Source: ft.com)