“Most mornings I learn more from New Items than I do from all of the traditional papers I read combined.” — Michael Blair, Lecturer in Law at Columbia Law School and former presiding partner, Debevoise & Plimpton.
This edition of News Items was posted and emailed at 5:45am. Market data may have changed by the time you read it.
1. Goldman Sachs:
If most of the April 9 tariffs do take effect, then the effective tariff rate will rise by an estimated 20 percentage points once those increases and likely sectoral tariffs take effect, even allowing for some country-specific agreements at a later date. If so, we expect to change our forecast to a recession. (Source: ft.com, italics mine)
2. The carnage in financial markets unleashed by President Donald Trump’s tariffs is continuing unabated as equities get pummeled and US stock futures show that last week’s $5 trillion wipeout isn’t over. S&P 500 futures pointed to a loss of about 5% when Wall Street starts trading. Treasuries rallied, pushing the 10-year yield to 3.9%. From Shanghai to London, investors bailed on any kind of risky asset. Europe’s Stoxx 600 tumbled 6% and Asia’s index posted its steepest loss since 2008. (Source: bloomberg.com)
3. John Authers:
(I)t’s important not to overstate this. The market has swung away from a position that looked extreme. A 60/40 index (the classic 60% equities 40% bonds allocation) is the lowest in six months, but no worse than that. Similarly, stocks relative to bonds, as proxied by the popular SPY and TLT exchange-traded funds, have lost a lot of ground, but have held on to most of their post-pandemic gains. Retirement funds haven’t been wiped out. Keep this in proportion; while remembering that there’s also plenty of room below for this to go much further. (Source: bloomberg.com)
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