Monarch Butterflies.
Militarist demons.
“It’s the first thing I read every day.” — Brigadier General (retired) Russ Howard, founding director of The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point.
1. For the first time, scientists are tracking the migration of monarch butterflies across much of North America, actively monitoring individual insects on journeys from as far away as Ontario all the way to their overwintering colonies in central Mexico. This long-sought achievement could provide crucial insights into the poorly understood life cycles of hundreds of species of butterflies, bees and other flying insects at a time when many are in steep decline. The breakthrough is the result of a tiny solar-powered radio tag that weighs just 60 milligrams and sells for $200. Researchers have tagged more than 400 monarchs this year and are now following their journeys on a cellphone app created by the New Jersey-based company that makes the tags, Cellular Tracking Technologies. (Sources: nytimes.com, celltracktech.com)
2. China’s appetite for credit faltered sharply in October, with new loans slumping and household borrowing shrinking, reinforcing concerns about sluggish consumer confidence and continued headwinds for the broader economy. (Source: caixinglobal.com)
3. Chinese financial institutions have lent more than $200 billion to the United States over the past 25 years — more than they have advanced to any other country — as part of a vast global spending spree to take control of Western companies working on sensitive technologies, according to new research released Tuesday. China discloses very little about the operations of its state-owned banks and asset managers. But AidData, a research lab at William & Mary University in Williamsburg, Virginia, reported what they called an “unexpected and counterintuitive” finding: Between 2000 and 2023, Chinese financial institutions had backed 2,500 projects in almost every U.S. state, from gas pipelines to airport terminals. (Source: washingtonpost.com)
4. An intensifying selloff across financial markets Monday ensnared everything from gold to crypto to highflying tech stocks, dragging the Dow Jones Industrial Average to its worst three-day stretch since President Trump’s tariff turmoil in April. Investors in recent days have dumped assets in the lead-up to key tests for whether the artificial-intelligence boom and economic growth that powered stocks to successive records in 2025 will continue into the new year. (Source: wsj.com)
5. More than $1 trillion has been wiped from the cryptocurrency market in the past six weeks as concerns about lofty tech valuations and the path of US interest rates have fueled a sell-off in speculative assets. The total market value of more than 18,000 coins tracked by data provider CoinGecko has tumbled 25 per cent since a market peak on October 6, wiping about $1.2 trillion from their combined capitalization. The price of bitcoin has dropped more than 28 per cent over the same period to $89,500, leaving the world’s biggest cryptocurrency trading at its lowest level since April and flat for the year. Losses for traders in high-octane leveraged bets over the past month have accelerated the pace of the selling, analysts say. (Source: ft.com)
6. (E)ven as the crypto industry gains mainstream acceptance, at least $28 billion tied to illicit activity has flowed into crypto exchanges over the last two years, according to an examination by the International Consortium of Investigative Journalists, The New York Times and 36 other news organizations around the world. The money came from hackers, thieves and extortionists. It was traced to cybercriminals in North Korea and scammers whose schemes stretched from Minnesota to Myanmar. Over and over, the analysis showed, these groups have moved money onto the world’s largest exchanges, which are online marketplaces where people can convert U.S. dollars or euros into Bitcoin, Ether and other digital coins. Among the recipients of this “dirty money” was Binance, the world’s biggest crypto exchange, which participated in a $2 billion business deal with Mr. Trump’s crypto firm in May. The money also flowed into at least eight other prominent exchanges, including OKX, a global platform with a growing footprint in the United States, according to the analysis. (Sources: icij.org, nytimes.com)
7. Part Two of the Bloomberg “Big Take” on “The Rewritten Retirement Promise”:
PHL Variable Insurance Co. is a cautionary tale of what can go wrong as Wall Street firms expand into life insurance and take over obligations to American savers. Since the insurer sold policies to the Nappo family and thousands of others, it has unraveled into a shell of itself. A few weeks after Jimmy’s death, the firm’s deteriorating finances prompted a regulator in its home state of Connecticut to place it in rehabilitation and limit payouts — effectively withholding nest eggs worth at least $400 million.
Authorities have since estimated the firm faces a $2.2 billion capital shortfall. Read the rest. (Source: bloomberg.com. Italics mine.)
8. Greg Ip:
Artificial intelligence might be the most transformative technology in generations. It is also the most joyless. A survey in 1995 found 72% of respondents comfortable with new technology such as computers and the internet. Just 24% were not. Fast forward to AI now, and those proportions have flipped: just 31% are comfortable with AI while 68% are uncomfortable, a summer survey for CNBC found. (Sources: wsj.com, cnbc.com)
9. President Trump will roll out the red carpet for Saudi Arabia’s de facto ruler, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, on Tuesday for a visit expected to advance the sale of F-35 fighter jets and a host of business deals with the kingdom. The warm welcome he will receive in Washington is the latest sign that relations have recovered from the deep strain caused by Khashoggi’s murder. During a day of White House diplomacy, MBS will hold talks with Trump in the Oval Office, have lunch in the Cabinet Room and attend a formal black-tie dinner in the evening. Trump hopes to cash in on a $600 billion Saudi investment pledge made during his visit to the kingdom in May. A senior White House official told Reuters that U.S.-Saudi deals on technology, manufacturing, defense and more are expected. (Source: reuters.com)
10. In a sharp shift of decades of U.S. foreign policy, the Western Hemisphere has become the United States’ central theater abroad. In addition to military threats and action, the White House this year has carried out punishing tariffs, severe sanctions, pressure campaigns and economic bailouts across the Americas. Mr. Trump has said he is seeking to stop drugs and migrants from entering the United States. But, in other moments, top administration officials have been explicit that their overarching goal is to assert American dominance over its half of the planet. (Source: nytimes.com)
11. Financial Times:
(C)rumbling bridges, mismatched rail gauges and labyrinthine bureaucracy remain significant hurdles to moving military assets across Europe. In the wake of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, France was unable to send tanks to Romania on the shortest land route through Germany and instead had to ship them via the Mediterranean.
These examples serve as a stark reminder that Europe’s race to re-arm is not limited to procuring weapons or building up big armies. It must also be possible to swiftly transport troops, equipment and ammunition from the west — where the bulk of Nato’s forces are based — to the alliance’s eastern flank (Source: ft.com)
12. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk described an explosion on the country’s rail network near the Ukraine border as an “unprecedented act of sabotage,” casting it among a string of suspected attacks targeting European infrastructure in recent months. A passenger train traveling between Warsaw and the eastern city of Lublin was forced to make an emergency stop early Sunday after damage was spotted on the tracks. The route is a crucial part of the network for delivering aid to Ukraine. “Blowing up the rail track on the Warsaw-Lublin route is an unprecedented act of sabotage targeting directly the security of the Polish state and its civilians,” Tusk said in a social-media post Monday. (Source: wsj.com)
13. European Union officials have spent months focused on a plan to use frozen Russian assets to make a loan to Ukraine that could help Kyiv fight the next phase of the war. It is increasingly clear that the bloc has nothing but bad alternatives should that fail. The loan plan, through which the European Union would use Russia’s central bank assets in Belgium to funnel 140 billion euros, or about $160 billion, to Ukraine, was expected to move forward at the bloc’s political meeting last month. In a last-minute surprise, Belgium blocked it. (Source: nytimes.com)
14. Prime Minister Mark Carney won a key budget vote by the slimmest of margins in Canada’s Parliament, ensuring the survival of his government. A majority of elected lawmakers backed the government’s proposed fiscal plan, thanks to support from the leader of the Green Party and the absence of some members of other opposition parties from the vote. The tally was 170 to 168. The vote allows the government to proceed with implementing a budget that pledged tens of billions in additional spending for trade infrastructure, defense and housing, while promising to shrink the public sector. (Source: bloomberg.com)
15. Chinese scientists have developed a catalyst that can turn biomass and coal-derived syngas directly into building blocks for plastic and synthetic rubber with higher efficiency and sustainability than existing methods. The iron-based nanoparticle catalyst converts syngas, or synthesis gas, into hydrogen and carbon-based compounds called olefins by coupling two reactions that separately have limitations but together have synergistic effects. This process produces olefins with a large variety of uses – including as chemical intermediates for pharmaceuticals, plastics, packaging materials, car parts and clothing – without the need for petroleum. (Source: scmp.com)
Quick Links: The perfect metaphor: Key Bridge rebuild could cost up to $5.2 billion, more than twice initial estimate. Hydropower is getting less reliable as the world needs more energy. Applications are up and turnover is down for jobs with low pay and tough working conditions. Girls rule at MIT.
Financialization Links: Rebecca Patterson: How our economy comes crashing down. A Jenga-like collapse is a growing, underappreciated possibility. Oracle’s astonishing $300 billion OpenAI deal is now valued at minus $74 billion. The growing problem with China’s unreliable numbers (and they were unreliable to begin with). Japan bond rout deepens on fears over Takaichi’s fiscal package. The ‘JPMorgan Boys’ behind the U.S. bailout for Argentina. The standoff that brought the Big Ten’s $2.4 billion deal to a screeching halt.
Political Links: Karen Elliott House: The Saudi crown prince seeks a defense pact and investments in AI and uranium enrichment. In India, Modi’s party cements its rule with sweeping state election win. A new poll shows global opinion is swinging China’s way. Walter Mead: Beijing hopes to undermine Japan’s new prime minister’s power before she can fully consolidate her position. China accuses Takaichi of reviving Japan’s ‘militarist demons’. Japan warns citizens in China about safety as diplomatic crisis deepens. Philippine ministers resign as graft scandal escalates. Europe sees China as a rival. China sees Europe as a has-been. Gideon Rachman: The world is beginning to impose its will on Europe. Centre-left tipped to lose Copenhagen for first time in electoral history. President Trump has the power to release the Epstein files, with or without Congress. Is President Trump’s ability to bend the Republican Party to his will weakening? (Maybe, maybe not). Trump defends Tucker Carlson for interviewing white nationalist Fuentes. Trump signals meeting with newly-elected NYC Mayor Mamdani, says ‘we’ll work something out’. Judge says Justice Dept. may have committed misconduct in Comey case. Fight over abortion could doom Congress’s health care plans. Clever Yalies escape crackdown.
Science/Technology Links: Jeff Bezos is throwing his money and time into an artificial intelligence start-up. WhatsApp breaks through Apple’s walled garden. WhatsApp is the world’s default messaging platform, with over three billion users. The force we experience most intimately remains the most mysterious. A new dual-light microscope lets researchers observe micro- and nanoscale activity inside living cells without using dyes. While the risk of airline flights being hit by space junk is still small, it is, in fact, growing.
War: Ukraine war update is here. Ukraine signs deal to obtain 100 French-made Rafale warplanes. A huge corruption scandal threatens Ukraine’s government. Russia’s militant bloggers are clashing with their own regime. What to know about China’s newly modernized nuclear arsenal. UN Security Council approves US-backed proposal for Gaza. Trump won’t rule out sending troops to Venezuela. Afghan officials are lashing out against their former allies in the Pakistani military. Drug wars: Ecuador is now one of the world’s most murderous nations.