No Third Outcome.
Escalate or accept humiliation.
“I can’t do my job without News Items.” — Jim Cramer, CNBC
1. The U.S. and Iran are teetering on the brink of a dangerous new phase of the war, as both turn to military force to break a standoff in the Strait of Hormuz that has paralyzed shipping and imposed costs on both sides. Fighting flared for the first time in about a month Monday, with the U.S. Navy trying to open the waterway and Iran hitting commercial ships to keep it closed. The U.S. said it used Apache helicopters to sink Iranian speedboats harassing traffic in the strait. Iran hit a critical oil port in the United Arab Emirates and several vessels around the strategic waterway. The return to a more openly violent chapter will test both sides. Each has reason to try to force an end to the current paralysis in the strait. But they also face substantial risks if the skirmishing escalates out of control—for Iran, greater damage to its economy and leadership, and for President Trump, deeper involvement in a war that is unpopular at home. (Source: wsj.com)
2. President Trump has threatened that Iran will be “blown off the face of the earth” if it attacks US vessels trying to reopen a route through the strait of Hormuz. The US launched an operation on Monday to help hundreds of ships trapped with their crews in the Gulf, dragging the region back to the brink of full-scale war. Tehran sought to reassert its blockade on the strait, which is a vital waterway in global trade. While the US military claimed to have destroyed six Iranian small boats and intercepted both Iranian cruise missiles and drones, this was denied by Iran. Over 800 ships and roughly 20,000 crew members remain stranded in the region. (Source: theguardian.com)
3. Eurointelligence:
Without a way to break what has turned into a stalemate between himself and the Iranian regime, Trump is stuck. If he backs out and tries to spin what would in effect be a defeat as a victory, he has made everyone’s petrol more expensive for months for no good reason. Waiting means that the fuel situation gets even worse, and sets the Republicans up for a very bad performance in the November midterm elections.
We see the escort as an already riskier attempt to try and get out of this deadlock. If, or when, it doesn’t work, what will happen next? We already know that Trump has been briefed by the US military on various options, and these options include ground operations. A ground war would, we think, be an order of magnitude more destabilising, even compared to this. But bad decisions have a habit of following each other. (Source: eurointelligence.com)
4. Robert Pape:
(President Trump) is betting that Iran will not strike a ship under American protection. If Trump wins the bet, the United States stabilizes the corridor. If it fails even once, Washington must escalate—or accept humiliation in full view of the world. There is no third outcome. (Sources: political-science.uchicago.edu, escalationtrap.substack.com)
5. Eurointelligence:
We still underestimate how the war with Iran impacts our interconnected world. Even if the war eventually ends, the conflict is likely to continue to affect global connectivity through maritime routes and our digital or financial links. This is the main difference to the war in Ukraine, where the focus is mostly on territorial concessions. In Iran, the narrow goal of nuclear deterrence has morphed into a global connectivity shock, the third since the pandemic and perhaps the most lasting one. (Source: eurointelligence.com)
