1. In a country that tracks the spread of coronavirus variants as closely as any in the world, the signals have never been more concerning. Omicron positives are doubling nearly every two days. The country is setting one daily case record after another. The lab analyzing positive tests recently added an overnight shift just to keep up. And scientists say the surge is just beginning. As omicron drives a new phase of the pandemic, many are looking to Denmark — and particularly the government institute devoted to testing, surveillance and modeling — for warnings about what to expect. The emerging answer — even in this highly vaccinated, wealthy northern European country — is dire. For all the defenses built over the last year, the virus is about to sprint out of control, and scientists here expect a similar pattern in much of the world. “The next month will be the hardest period of the pandemic,” said Tyra Grove Krause, the chief epidemiologist at Denmark’s State Serum Institute, a campus of brick buildings along a canal. (via washingtonpost.com)
2. New York State yesterday reported yet another increase in coronavirus cases as a convergence between the fast-spreading Omicron variant and a winter surge of the Delta variant continues to drive a spike in infections. The 21,908 new cases reported on Saturday was a slight increase over the 21,027 cases reported the day before. Both were daily records for the state. (Ed Note: Over 3,000 commercial flights pass through New York City airports every single day, according to Port Authority statistics). (via nytimes.com, panynj.gov)
3. Two new cases of the omicron variant were detected in the central Chinese city of Changsha from arrivals into the country, state-backed media Xinhua reported Saturday citing the municipal government. The provincial capital of Hunan is the latest place to discover the highly contagious variant in incoming travelers, after the southern province of Guangdong and the northern metropolis of Tianjin reported cases earlier this month. Omicron has put China’s Covid-zero strategy under pressure, although no local transmissions of the variant have yet been reported. While China is less exposed to the spread of omicron because of its closed borders for now, increased risks are on the horizon. Beijing will host the Winter Olympics in less than 50 days, when tens of thousands of foreigners will be allowed to enter the country. Reports recently show that Chinese shots given to the vast majority of its highly vaccinated population don’t provide sufficient antibodies against omicron. (via bloomberg.com)
4. Taiwan’s ruling party claimed a decisive victory in a closely watched referendum vote, in a setback for Beijing that removes a key obstacle to a U.S. trade deal with the democratically governed island. Taiwan’s ruling Democratic Progressive Party, which supports closer ties with Washington at the expense of Beijing, prevailed on all four questions put to voters on Saturday. Perhaps most notably, Taiwan voters rejected a proposal that would have banned imports of pork containing trace amounts of the additive ractopamine—a key obstacle to a free-trade agreement with the U.S. The outcome of the referendum was a surprise setback to Beijing and Taiwan’s opposition Nationalist Party, or Kuomintang, which seeks closer ties with China. Beijing claims democratically governed Taiwan as part of its territory. (via wsj.com)
5. Chilean leftist Gabriel Boric has widened his lead in the final polls ahead of today’s presidential election, though the polarized race remains tight against ultra-conservative rival Jose Antonio Kast. Ahead of the run-off ballot, two private polls seen by Reuters showed 35-year-old former student protest leader Boric edging ahead of Kast, 55, a far-right lawyer who has defended the legacy of military dictator Augusto Pinochet. Chile, the world's top copper producer and long a role model of market-oriented economic policy in Latin America, is set for its most divisive presidential ballot in decades, with both candidates from outside the centrist mainstream parties. (via reuters.com)
6. Chile’s former presidential candidate Franco Parisi offered his support to conservative Jose Antonio Kast, hours ahead of Sunday’s presidential runoff, arguing left-winger Gabriel Boric had “persistently attacked” his party. In a video posted in his Twitter account, Parisi, who came third in the first round of the presidential vote last month, vowed his party would vote for Kast after an internal consultation Friday showed 61% support for the conservative candidate versus 6% for Boric. The support is crucial for what’s seen as a tight race where Boric is leading. Recent surveys show Kast was narrowing the gap in a country with an ongoing project to rewrite the constitution after unprecedented social upheaval. (via bloomberg.com)
7. Last week, after a vote by Serb MPs, Milorad Dodik, one of Bosnia’s three presidents, announced that Republika Srpska would begin to withdraw from key Bosnian institutions including the army, setting off what diplomats and politicians in the country say is the biggest crisis for the country since the 1990s. Matt Field, the British ambassador to Bosnia, tweeted last week that the “attacks” on the state institutions such as the armed forces were unlawful, destabilising and inspired by personal political ambitions. Western countries are considering sanctions against Republika Srpska and some of its politicians. Bosniak political leaders warn that the country is sliding towards a new war. (via thetimes.co.uk)
8. His country faces an imminent threat of full-blown invasion, according to US intelligence, with more than 100,000 Russian troops amassed at the border. But Ukraine’s embattled president Volodymyr Zelensky has chosen the moment of danger to deepen a domestic stand-off with the country’s richest oligarch, Rinat Akhmetov. In a press conference late last month, Zelensky claimed, without providing evidence, that his intelligence services had uncovered plans for a Russian-backed coup that aimed to lure in support from Akhmetov. “I think [Akhmetov] may not know about it,” the president said before adding: “I invite Rinat Akhmetov to [my office] to listen to the information that can be shared.” Zelensky’s extraordinary decision to draw a powerful businessman into an alleged plot has dismayed analysts and western diplomats, given the heightened Russian threat and multiple problems including the country’s low Covid-19 vaccination rate and high death toll. (via ft.com)
9. German Economic Affairs and Climate Action Minister Robert Habeck has warned Russia of "severe consequences" and threatened to halt the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline, if Moscow were to attack Ukraine. "Any new military action cannot remain without severe consequences," he told the Sunday edition of the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung, referring to Russian troop deployment on the Ukrainian border. Habeck warned that "nothing can be excluded," including blocking the pipeline from operation, if "there is a new violation of the territorial integrity" of Ukraine. "In the event of further escalation this gas pipeline could not come into service," Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock said earlier this week. (via dw.com)
10. One of NATO's most senior generals has suggested the alliance should deploy troops in Bulgaria and Romania after Russia's military build-up near the Ukrainian border, German newspaper Der Spiegel reported on Saturday. Der Spiegel said the plans made by NATO's Supreme Allied Commander Europe, Tod Wolters, would in effect extend the alliance's "Enhanced Forward Presence" mission under which it has already deployed troops to the Baltic countries and eastern Poland. The magazine said it had "information" that Wolters had "called for a reinforcement of troops on the eastern border" of NATO during confidential video conference with military leaders of "partner nations," adding that the proposal would in effect "expand NATO's presence (to Romania and Bulgaria) through the Enhanced Forward Presence (EFP) mission." NATO declined to comment on Der Spiegel's report. (via dw.com)
11. Boris Johnson was dealt another major blow to his leadership on Saturday night as it emerged that the man overseeing Brexit was resigning from the cabinet. With Tory MPs already warning the prime minister that he would have to regain control of the government to survive as leader until the next election, it emerged that Lord Frost is to leave the government after frustrations over Brexit negotiations and broader concerns over the government’s Covid policies and tax increases. The shock departure represents another dangerous moment for Johnson, following a series of scandals and a humiliating by-election defeat last week that saw his party lose a 23,000 majority. (via theguardian.com)
12. Climate change is exposing the weaknesses of Iran’s economy, built on oil extraction and unsustainable agricultural practices. As the planet gets hotter through mid-century, Iran is likely to experience more extended periods of extreme high temperatures as well as more frequent dry periods and floods, according to a 2019 study published in the scientific journal Nature. This is true of many places, but the impact will be particularly acute in Iran: “Without thoughtful adaptability measures,” the researchers wrote, “some parts of the country may face limited habitability in the future.” News of Iran’s water crisis is everywhere. State-run agencies run daily headlines about huge drops in rainfall, dam failures and depletions in ground and surface water stores. The semi-official hardline Fars News has warned that more than 300 towns and cities now face acute water stress. Government meteorologists estimate 97% of the country is affected by drought, while one academic says 20 million people have been forced to move to cities because the land is too dry for farming. Many dams registered record levels of evaporation this year, triggering power outages at the height of one of the hottest summers ever recorded. (via bloomberg.com)
13. Namibia is positioning itself as a leader in the emerging market for green hydrogen, which is made using renewable electricity. With bright sunshine 300 days a year and vicious winds that rip along a nearly 1,000-mile coast, renewable experts and government officials say the southwest African nation has outsize potential for renewable energy production. That is piquing the interest of investors seeking to grow their foothold in the mushrooming green-energy asset class. Namibia is already putting up to €40 million in funding, worth $45.3 million, from former colonial power Germany to use on feasibility studies and pilot projects related to so-called green hydrogen. That is made by using renewable energy like wind or solar to separate and distill the hydrogen atoms in water, as opposed to making hydrogen from fossil fuels, which is known as gray hydrogen, or blue hydrogen if the emissions from the fossil fuels are captured. (via wsj.com)
14. Across ten countries that account for about 60 percent of global GDP—Australia, Canada, China, France, Germany, Japan, Mexico, Sweden, the United Kingdom, and the United States—the historic link between the growth of net worth and the growth of GDP no longer holds. While economic growth has been tepid over the past two decades in advanced economies, balance sheets and net worth that have long tracked it have tripled in size. This divergence emerged as asset prices rose—but not as a result of 21st-century trends like the growing digitization of the economy. Rather, in an economy increasingly propelled by intangible assets like software and other intellectual property, a glut of savings has struggled to find investments offering sufficient economic returns and lasting value to investors. These savings have found their way instead into real estate, which in 2020 accounted for two-thirds of net worth. Other fixed assets that can drive economic growth made up only about 20 percent the total. Moreover, asset values are now nearly 50 percent higher than the long-run average relative to income. And for every $1 in net new investment over the past 20 years, overall liabilities have grown by almost $4, of which about $2 is debt. (via mckinsey.com)
Quick Links: Chinese autonomous driving company revs up funding. Taliban recruits flood into Afghanistan from neighboring Pakistan. Pakistan seeks to calm protesters at Chinese Belt and Road port project. How China’s global ambitions almost unseated an IMF chief.
Political Links: What to know about Chile’s presidential election. Only one candidate has set himself on a collision course with Chile’s Constitutional Convention. The end of the Merkel era: “Given a chance to choose their leader for the first time, the CDU’s rank and file voted overwhelmingly last week for Friedrich Merz." U.S. counters China with new Indo-Pacific framework. John Bolton’s guide for containing Russia and China. Richard Haass on defusing the Russia-Ukraine crisis. French presidential candidate Valérie Pécresse tacks right on immigration. Macron leads Pecresse in meaningless new poll. Map by map, G.O.P. chips away at black Democrats’ power. The Senate confirmed President Biden’s 40th federal judicial nominee early on Saturday morning, the most judges confirmed in a president’s first year in the last 40 years.
Pandemic Links: Inside South African virology labs: Hunting for the next variant. WHO says Omicron spreading significantly faster than delta. California COVID-19 hospitalizations rise, new L.A. County cases double amid Omicron spread. Kamala Harris concedes White House ‘didn’t see’ Delta and Omicron coming. Biden will address the nation about Omicron on Tuesday as cases rise.