Preparation Overload.

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Today’s News Items is a two-parter. Part One is entirely devoted to political news, broadly defined. Part Two covers everything else. This is Part One.

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1. The Economist:

A dramatic new era began in France on June 30th when Marine Le Pen’s hard-right party took a massive lead in first-round voting for the lower house of parliament. Her National Rally (RN) has never been so close to governing France. Early results suggested that the party had secured 33.5% of the vote, according to Ipsos, a polling group. Ahead of a final run-off vote on July 7th, this puts it on course to win 230-280 seats in the 577-seat National Assembly, up from 88, and become easily the biggest group in parliament. A result at the upper end of that range would put the RN in touching distance of an overall majority of 289.

The poll was marked by the highest first-round turnout since 1997. Candidates from the RN came top in hundreds of constituencies across the country: in its old geographical heartlands of the north-eastern rustbelt and the south of France, as well as places with little history of support, such as Brittany. In her own constituency around Hénin-Beaumont, in the mining basin of northern France, Ms. Le Pen was elected outright in the first round.

The four-party left-wing alliance, New Popular Front (NFP), had a good night too, coming second nationally with 28.1% of the vote, according to Ipsos. The alliance, made up of Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s Unsubmissive France, Socialists, Greens and Communists, qualifies for the second round in many constituencies in big cities and multi-cultural banlieues (suburbs), where its backing for an independent Palestinian state is popular. Ipsos calculates that the NFP could win 125-165 seats, making it the second-biggest parliamentary bloc.

By contrast, the vote was a crushing humiliation for President Emmanuel Macron’s centrist alliance, Ensemble. Many of his own deputies and closest allies, sensing an impending wipe-out, were aghast at his unexpected decision on June 9th to call a snap election. It backfired, spectacularly. Ensemble secured a dismal 20.7% of the national vote. It is now expected to lose more than half of its 250 seats; projections by Ipsos suggest it could hold on to as few as 70-100. One deputy called it a “total catastrophe”. (Source: economist.com)

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2. Eurointelligence:

A very high turnout at the French elections of 66.7% was responsible for denying Marine Le Pen's Rassemblement National the outright majority they had hoped for. But a landslide victory it is. The polls got it more or less right when measured in national percentage points. The final results have the hard right RN and its allies at 33.1%, the Nouveau Front Populaire on the left at 28%, and Macron’s alliance, Ensemble, at 20%. What remains of the part of Les Républicains that is not in alliance with the far right only got 6.7%. So whatever emerges in the end in the National Assembly, it will be a hung parliament, with three blocs and without a clear majority. The way of governing, even under co-habitation, will have to be different from anything France experienced in the past. But we are not there yet. Much depends on the second round now to determine where the new balance of power will be.

How many seats the Rassemblement National can win in the second round depends on the other parties and their voters. They decide for the second round whether or not to give the RN a chance or to block them. Last night, the leaders on the left and Gabriel Attal urged not to give a single vote to the far-right. Will their candidates and supporters follow their advice? (Source: eurointelligence.com)

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