1. Anthropic Institute Paper: Economic Scenarios for Transformative AI:
This paper presents a framework for assessing the economic consequences of AI between 2026 and 2030. In the model, AI automates a growing share of cognitive work, raising productivity and displacing workers who must search for jobs in other occupations. The model maps future paths of AI capabilities into implied paths for GDP, the labor share, wages, labor reallocation, and unemployment. We illustrate the framework by considering three scenarios: modest, substantial, and extreme. Under modest change, AI adds less than half a point to GDP growth by 2030 and raises unemployment by a tenth of a point. In the extreme change scenario, AI has transformative effects, with AI performing almost half of today’s cognitive work by 2030. GDP growth then rises to 15 percent per year, the labor share of income falls from 60 to 45 percent, and nearly one in five cognitive workers is unemployed. We also surveyed US adults about their expectations for AI. Views vary widely, but the median respondent’s answers are consistent with our substantial change scenario in which, by 2030, GDP rises by 8 percent and cognitive employment declines by 4 percent. The model offers a structured way to compare possibilities for our economic future under different expectations about AI. The working paper is here. Anthropic’s presentation of the “scenarios” is here. (Source: anthropic.com)
2. Among the growing fears about artificial intelligence, one threat has proved particularly alarming: the possibility that A.I. could be used to create a new wave of biological weapons. In April, biosecurity experts warned that it was disturbingly easy to get advice from chatbots about making pathogens more dangerous. In June, scientists and A.I. executives signed an open letter calling for new controls on the fabrication of DNA because A.I. can now speed up the design of toxins and viruses. In August, scientists reported that they had used A.I. to build viruses not seen in nature. And on Thursday, Anthropic announced that it had blocked several attempts to use its models by people who might have been trying to weaponize pathogens. Dario Amodei, the chief executive of Anthropic, followed up with a call on Saturday to slow down the development of A.I., with a set of proposals to keep it safe. (Sources; nytimes.com, wored.com, darioamodei.com. What a world with AI-enhanced bio-weaponry might look like is described in this book by Annie Jacobsen.)
3. It took just a few hours over the weekend for well-known Silicon Valley figures to push back on calls by leading artificial intelligence companies to slow down the development of A.I. and to more tightly regulate the technology. On Saturday, Dario Amodei, Anthropic’s chief executive, said in an essay that A.I. was advancing too quickly for researchers to continue building it safely. Although they appeared to differ on what should be done about it, Sam Altman, OpenAI’s chief executive; Elon Musk, SpaceX’s chief executive; and Demis Hassabis, Google DeepMind’s chair, all said they agreed on the need for a slower pace. But other technology industry leaders were quick to question Dr. Amodei’s motivations and whether he was sensationalizing the risks of A.I. to make it harder for other companies to compete with leading A.I. companies. “Stop pretending the motivation to slow down is purely altruistic,” said David Sacks, a technology adviser for President Trump and the White House’s former A.I. and crypto czar, in a social media post. The criticism of the calls for a slowdown highlighted a deep divide between people who believe the government should police A.I. and others who believe regulatory intervention would crush competition. (Source: nytimes.com)
4. President Trump yesterday appeared to dismiss calls from top artificial intelligence leaders to slow the development of AI models, as Democrats seize on his administration’s resistance to regulation as a line of attack in the midterms. “We’re leading China in AI, we’re the most sophisticated country in the world, and frankly I want to keep it that way,” he said on the sidelines of the Irish Open golf tournament. “Whoever wins AI wins.” Trump’s remarks placed him once again firmly on the full-speed-ahead side of the debate over the pace of AI development, which has increasingly divided both the technology and political worlds. He faces growing isolation in his position, as even members of his own party and some allies in the tech industry have grown uneasy with Trump’s apparent lack of concern over potential AI dangers. (Source: washingtonpost.com)
