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Signs of Strain.

AI 'brain fry'.

John Ellis
Mar 11, 2026
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1. UCSD Today:

Researchers from the University of California San Diego have found that a novel blood-based biomarker can predict a woman’s risk of developing dementia as many as 25 years before symptoms appear. The study, published on March 10, 2026 in JAMA Network Open, shows that higher levels of phosphorylated tau 217 (p-tau217) — a protein linked to the brain changes seen in Alzheimer’s disease — were strongly associated with future mild cognitive impairment and dementia among older women who were cognitively healthy at baseline, meaning at the start of the study before any memory or thinking problems were detected.

“Our study suggests we may be able to identify women at elevated risk for dementia decades before symptoms emerge,” said Aladdin H. Shadyab, PhD, MPH, first author of the study and UC San Diego associate professor of public health and medicine at the Herbert Wertheim School of Public Health and Human Longevity Science and the School of Medicine. “That kind of long lead time opens the door to earlier prevention strategies and more targeted monitoring, rather than waiting until memory problems are already affecting daily life.” (Sources: ucsd.edu, jamanetwork.com)


2. When the first cruise missiles began detonating inside Iran, the strikes had all the hallmarks of previous successful US military campaigns — unstoppable, overwhelming force delivered without warning. But almost two weeks into the conflict, the US war effort is showing unexpected signs of strain against an adversary whose military budget is smaller than the GDP of Vermont — but which has an arsenal of missiles and drones unlike anything the US has ever faced. American forces have been forced to dig deep into inventories of expensive, hard-to-replace interceptors to counter the Iranian barrage. Even with the Pentagon saying Iran’s attacks are down more than 80%, Tehran is still hitting valuable military installations and energy infrastructure across the Mideast daily, part of its strategy to raise oil prices to economically punishing levels. Inside Iran, hard-to-spot anti-aircraft missiles have prevented the total aerial dominance the US is accustomed to. “The United States led the long-range precision strike revolution, and this is the first war where we’re seeing the adversary have that kind of capability,” said Kelly Grieco, a senior fellow at the Stimson Center. “It’s putting stress on the system that we haven’t seen before.” (Source: bloomberg.com)


3. Eurointelligence:

Donald Trump has also maneuvered himself into a position where his stated war goal – regime change without a ground invasion – is no longer realistic. Right now, he has three choices: First, he sticks to the four-to-five week timetable, declares victory, and gets out. The Strait of Hormuz would at this point not be sufficiently secured. Second, he could continue the current campaign until the strait is open and he is assured that it will stay open. There would be no regime change in Iran, but he would have regained control over the strait of Hormuz. Third, he concludes that for as long as the existing Iranian regime is in power, the strait is not safe. To get the job done, he will need to send in ground troops.

Scenario one is just awful. We think he is in scenario two. So do the markets. But we are not sure that this scenario is realistic. It is clearly the Iranian strategy to leverage the one and only trump card they have – a global economic crisis resulting from the closure of the strait. They have already carried out drone and missile attacks on ships on oil installation in the Gulf states. CNN reported that they started to lay mines in the Strait. The strait of Hormuz is very difficult to protect. The maritime historian, and erstwhile firefighter, Salvatore Mercogliano, told FAZ in an interview that the Americans did not think this through. If a tanker sinks, you have to deal not only with a destroyed ship, but with an oil spill that would make it impossible for anyone to pass through the strait. The compensation payments would be massive. In other words, if the US reopens the strait, their job will be to protect every single ship, whereas the Iranians only need a single successful hit. (Source: eurointelligence.com)


4. Iran has begun laying mines in the Strait of Hormuz, the world’s most important energy chokepoint that carries about one-fifth of all crude oil, according to two people familiar with US intelligence reporting on the issue. The mining is not extensive yet, with a few dozen having been laid in recent days, the sources said. But Iran still retains upward of 80% to 90% of its small boats and mine layers, one of the sources said, so its forces could feasibly lay hundreds of mines in the waterway. (Source: cnn.com)


5. The US has eliminated 16 minelaying vessels near the Strait of Hormuz after Donald Trump warned Iran not to place explosives in the narrow waterway. US Central Command, which oversees American military operations in the Middle East, said in a post on X that US forces had “eliminated multiple Iranian naval vessels, March 10, including 16 minelayers near the Strait of Hormuz”. (Source: ft.com)


6. A Thai-flagged cargo ship was struck off the coast of Iran while trying to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, according to maritime sources, forcing the crew to abandon ship. The vessel was the Thai-owned Mayuree Naree, according to two people familiar with the situation. A Japanese container ship was also struck in the Gulf in the early hours of Wednesday, according to the UK Maritime Trade Operations Centre and maritime analysts, while another reported damage from an “unknown projectile” in the Strait of Hormuz, the third to be impacted by strikes in the space of five hours. At least 14 vessels have now been hit in the Gulf since the start of the US-Israel strikes on Iran. (Source: ft.com)

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