Surprise!

The Iowa Poll meets the Conventional Wisdom.

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1. The Des Moines Register:

Kamala Harris now leads Donald Trump in Iowa — a startling reversal for Democrats and Republicans who have all but written off the state’s presidential contest as a certain Trump victory.  

A new Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll shows Vice President Harris leading former President Trump 47% to 44% among likely voters just days before a high-stakes election that appears deadlocked in key battleground states.  

The results follow a September Iowa Poll that showed Trump with a 4-point lead over Harris and a June Iowa Poll showing him with an 18-point lead over Democratic President Joe Biden, who was the presumed Democratic nominee at the time.  

“It’s hard for anybody to say they saw this coming,” said pollster J. Ann Selzer, president of Selzer & Co. “She has clearly leaped into a leading position.” (Source: desmoinesregister.com. Ed. Note: These are the first genuinely surprising poll results of the entire 2024 presidential campaign)

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2. The Iowa Poll referenced above was conducted by Selzer & Co., a polling firm with a well-deserved reputation for accuracy. Its founder and president is Ann Selzer, who is profiled here. Three months ago, Joe Klein and I talked with Ann at some length, a conversation that became Episode #32 of ‘Night Owls’. It’s worth a listen. (Source: selzer.co, politico.com, news-items.com/podcast, podcasts.apple.com)