The Catch.

“We’re all Soviets now.”

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1. The Israeli military on Tuesday night said senior officers had approved “operational plans for an offensive in Lebanon”, as fears grow that Israel and Hizbollah could slide into a full-blown conflict. The Lebanese militant group and Israeli forces have been trading fire on an almost daily basis since the beginning of the war between Israel and Hamas in Gaza, but exchanges escalated last week, with Iran-backed Hizbollah firing dozens of rockets at Israel after it killed one of the group’s commanders in an air strike. Despite the intensifying exchanges, which have displaced tens of thousands of people and caused casualties in Lebanon and Israel, the two sides have not been drawn into an all-out war, with the US leading a diplomatic push to de-escalate the situation. More on this here. (Source: ft.com, theguardian.com)

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2. The Philippines accused China of "piracy" earlier today, as defense officials reported injuries and stolen equipment following an incident in Second Thomas Shoal, a flashpoint in the disputed South China Sea. The incident took place on Monday, as Beijing attempted to disrupt a routine Philippine resupply mission at its outpost on the shoal. It came days after China began enforcing a domestic regulation authorizing the detention of "trespassers" within its borders, including its expansive, unrecognized maritime claims in the South China Sea. (Source: asia.nikkei.com)

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3. The $230 million temporary pier that the U.S. military built on short notice to rush humanitarian aid to Gaza has largely failed in its mission, aid organizations say, and will probably end operations weeks earlier than originally expected. In the month since it was attached to the shoreline, the pier has been in service only about 10 days. The rest of the time, it was being repaired after rough seas broke it apart, detached to avoid further damage or paused because of security concerns.  The pier was never meant to be more than a stopgap measure while the Biden administration pushed Israel to allow more food and other supplies into Gaza through land routes, a far more efficient way to deliver relief. But even the modest goals for the pier are likely to fall short, some American military officials say. (Source: nytimes.com)

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4. Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget:

The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) today released new ten-year budget and economic projections – an update from its February baseline – again confirming that the national debt is on an unsustainable path. According to CBO's new projections:

• Debt held by the public will reach a new record by the end of Fiscal Year (FY) 2027 – 106.2 percent of GDP – and rise to 122.4 percent of GDP by the end of 2034.

• The budget deficit will rise to $1.9 trillion (6.7 percent of GDP) in FY 2024 and $2.9 trillion (6.9 percent of GDP) by 2034, totaling $22.1 trillion over the 2025-2034 budget window.

• Interest costs will reach a near-record 3.1 percent of GDP this year – exceeding defense and Medicare spending – set a new record next year and grow to 4.1 percent of GDP by FY 2034.

Under CBO’s latest baseline, federal debt held by the public will grow by $23 trillion through FY 2034, from over $27 trillion today to nearly $51 trillion by the end of 2034. As a share of the economy, debt will rise from 97.3 percent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) at the end of 2023 to 106.2 percent by 2027 – surpassing the prior record set just after World War II – and 122.4 percent of GDP by 2034. Debt in 2034 will be $2.4 trillion and 6.4 percent of GDP higher than projected in February. (Source: crfb.org, italics mine)

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