The Expectations Index.

Credible intelligence.

“Most mornings I learn more from New Items than I do from all of the traditional papers I read combined.” — Michael Blair, Lecturer in Law at Columbia Law School and former presiding partner, Debevoise & Plimpton.

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1. President Vladimir Putin is insisting that Russia must take control of four regions of Ukraine it doesn’t fully occupy as part of any agreement to end his war, according to three people in Moscow familiar with the matter. The demand deals a blow to US President Donald Trump’s efforts to reach a ceasefire and a permanent end to the war, amid mounting frustration in the White House about a lack of progress in negotiations. Trump’s envoy Steve Witkoff sought to persuade Putin that Russia should agree to a ceasefire that halts fighting along the current frontlines during lengthy talks at the Kremlin on Friday, according to two of the people, who asked not be identified discussing sensitive issues. Instead, the Russian leader maintained his maximalist position on territory, they said. Negotiations have reached an impasse for now, and it requires direct contact (Source: bloomberg.com)

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2. Institute for the Study of War:

Russian Security Council Secretary Dmitry Medvedev stated on April 29 that Russia's war in Ukraine must end in Russian "victory" and the "destruction" of the current Ukrainian government. Senior Kremlin officials continue to signal that Russia has greater territorial ambitions than just the occupied areas of Ukraine, particularly in areas bordering the Black Sea. Russian Presidential Aide and former Security Council Secretary Nikolai Patrushev claimed in an interview with Kremlin newswire TASS published on April 29 that Ukrainian civilians, particularly those living in the Black Sea region, must "determine their own future." Patrushev specifically noted that Odesa City spent over two centuries as the Russian Empire's and Soviet Union's outpost in the Black Sea and claimed that Odesa City residents have "nothing in common" with the current Ukrainian government. These statements are a reference to Russian President Vladimir Putin's 2023 claim that Ukrainians living in the Black Sea region have nothing "to do with Ukraine" and that Odesa is a "Russian city" and follows Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov's April 14, 2025 claim that the Ukrainian government "does not represent" residents of Odesa City and other Ukrainian territories. (Source: understandingwar.org)

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3. Russia intensified its attacks across Ukraine’s frontline and several cities as the success of US President Donald Trump’s efforts to bring a rapid end to the war look increasingly doubtful. Ukraine’s General Staff reported 177 clashes on the battlefield in the country’s south-east early Wednesday with Russian troops “rushing” deeper into Ukraine. “The Russians are trying to break defensive lines in the Zaporizhzhia region,” a spokesman for the Ukrainian military’s southern command, Vladyslav Voloshyn, said late Tuesday. The situation in the Kherson Region in the south has become “quite tense” in recent days, he said. Russia also launched significant drone attacks on the Ukrainian cities of Dnipro and Kharkiv earlier today, hitting residential areas, killing one civilian and injuring 50, according to local authorities. (Source: bloomberg.com)