The Future Coming At You.

A “misunderstood” figure.

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1. Israeli special forces have been carrying out small, targeted raids into southern Lebanon, gathering intelligence and probing ahead of a possible broader ground incursion that could come as soon as this week, people familiar with the matter said. The raids, which have included entering Hezbollah’s tunnels located along the border, have occurred recently as well as over the past months, part of the broader effort by Israel to degrade Hezbollah’s capabilities along the border dividing Israel and Lebanon, the people said. The timing of any ground action could change, the people said. Israel is under heavy pressure from the U.S. not to carry out a major invasion. It wasn’t immediately clear how long Israel would aim to hold territory, or whether the incursion would be more like a series of larger raids. Amir Avivi, a former senior Israeli military official who continues to be briefed by the defense establishment, said a ground incursion by Israel is imminent and that the raids are part of the preparation.

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2. Palestinian militant group Hamas said an Israeli strike killed its leader in Lebanon earlier today, while another Palestinian militant group said three of its leaders were killed in a strike on Beirut, the first attack within the city limits. Hamas said its leader in Lebanon, Fateh Sherif Abu el-Amin was killed, along with his wife, son, and daughter, in a strike that targeted their house in a Palestinian refugee camp in the southern city of Tyre in the early hours of Monday. As Israel escalates hostilities against Iran's allies in the region, the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine (PFLP) said three of its leaders were killed in a strike that targeted Beirut's Kola district. There was no immediate comment from Israel's military. (Source: reuters.com)

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3. After years of economic and political crisis, Lebanon now faces catastrophe. Israel’s escalating military offensive, including Friday’s assassination of Hezbollah leader Hasan Nasrallah, has set off a sprawling humanitarian disaster here, with fears of a possible ground invasion still to come. More than 1,000 people have been killed in the last two weeks and hundreds of thousands have been displaced. The hospitals are filled with the wounded and shelters are over capacity. Israel dramatically expanded the scope and pace of its operations over the last week — largely contained to the south over the last 11 months — pummeling communities in the northeast and in the suburbs of the capital while moving more troops and equipment to the Lebanese border. Late Sunday, Israel hit a residential building in west Beirut, its first strike inside the city limits. With hardship deepening and relief in short supply, there are growing fears of unrest in a country that has never fully recovered from its civil war. (Source: washingtonpost.com)

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4. Gideon Rachman:

Now, with its proxy and ally reeling, Iran is faced with a dilemma. It has not come directly to the aid of Hamas. If it also stands to one side as Hizbollah is pummelled, its allies will feel betrayed and Israel may be emboldened to take even more radical actions — perhaps including the direct attacks on Iran’s nuclear facilities that it has been threatening for decades.

On the other hand, if Iran gets directly involved in a war with Israel, the regime’s survival would be at risk — particularly since the US might well get drawn into the conflict. The Americans have sworn off further wars in the Middle East, at least in theory. But they are also firmly committed to the defence of Israel and have demonstrated that they are capable of bringing about regime change in the Middle East. The bloody, chaotic aftermath of the US-led war in Iraq remains a recent and painful memory in Washington. But the fact that Iran is known to be very close to having the capacity to build a nuclear weapon will increase the temptation for Israel to strike now.

Some excited supporters of Israel are comparing the current moment to the Six Day War of 1967 — a sudden and unexpected Israeli victory that changed the balance of power in the Middle East. (Source: ft.com)

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5. You don’t need a weatherman to know which way the wind blows: Benjamin Netanyahu has struck a deal with opposition politician Gideon Sa’ar to bring his rightwing New Hope party into government, in a move that will bolster the Israeli prime minister’s ruling majority. The agreement comes as polls suggest that support for Netanyahu’s Likud party is recovering from the depths it plumbed after Hamas’s October 7 attack, as Israel has launched aggressive operations in both Lebanon, where it has delivered a series of devastating blows to Hizbollah, and Iran. Sa’ar, a hawkish lawyer who began his career in Likud before falling out with Netanyahu and becoming one of the prime minister’s most vocal critics, will enter the cabinet as a minister without portfolio. (Source: ft.com)

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6. The far right yesterday won the most votes in an Austrian election for the first time since the Nazi era, as the Freedom party (FPÖ) rode a tide of public anger over migration and the cost of living to beat the center-right People’s party (ÖVP). The pro-Kremlin, anti-Islam FPÖ won 29.2% of votes, beating the ruling ÖVP of the chancellor, Karl Nehammer, into second place on 26.5%, according to near-complete results. The opposition Social Democratic party scored its worst ever result – 21% – while the liberal NEOS drew about 9%. Despite devastating flooding this month from Storm Boris bringing the climate crisis to the fore, the Greens, junior partners in the government coalition, tallied 8.3% in a dismal fifth place. (Source: theguardian.com)