The Hard Part.
The Sodfather.
1. Iran War:
The United States and Iran reached an agreement on Sunday that paved the way for further talks to ultimately end a months-long war that has killed thousands of people, roiled the Middle East and rattled the global economy.
The announcement led to relief in Iran and elsewhere in the Middle East. It also sent oil prices tumbling, in part because the deal is expected to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, a vital waterway for the world’s energy supplies.
But critical issues — including the fate of Iran’s nuclear program, the linchpin of the U.S.-Israeli attacks that started the war — have been pushed back to a later round of negotiations. And the economic shock waves of a war that has crippled supply chains and sent inflation soaring will keep rippling through the global economy for months.
The text of the agreement, which is scheduled to be signed by leaders from the two countries on Friday in Geneva, was not immediately released. (Source: nytimes.com)
2. Bloomberg analysis:
The US and Iran needed more than two months of fitful, strained negotiations to agree on a deal to halt their fighting and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Now comes the hard part.
The provisional agreement announced by the two sides on Sunday night — President Donald Trump’s 80th birthday — leaves a narrow window of 60 days to negotiate issues around Iran’s nuclear program that bedeviled his predecessors for years. The memorandum of understanding, which has yet to be released, will be formally signed on June 19.
That gap raised the possibility that details on the text remained unresolved and the signing could be derailed. Already, differences were emerging between the two sides in what may have actually been achieved, while the simmering conflict between Israel and Lebanon could also still lead to a breakdown.
Trump says this initial deal amounts to the start of a process that will lead to peace in the region. Skeptics argue it may end up being nothing more than a temporary reprieve given it’s not clear either side is ready to compromise on the thorniest issues — how much economic relief to give Iran, what to do about its nuclear program and how to address its ballistic missile program. (Source: bloomberg.com)
3. President Trump’s deal with Iran is set to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, but how quickly it can arrest a steep decline in oil stockpiles will determine the trajectory of energy prices in the coming weeks. For more than 15 weeks, the U.S. and other countries around the world have had to dip into oil tanks, salt caverns and strategic reserves to make up for the millions of barrels of oil trapped behind the strait. Now, the stocks are nearing critical levels, and energy executives say without an influx of more oil, prices will have to surge to stop the run on supplies….Relief could be on the way. (Source: wsj.com)
