The Iowa Caucuses.
By Rob Sand, Iowa State Auditor.
Given the interest in tonight’s activities in Iowa, we asked Rob Sand, the State Auditor, to explain things. Here’s what he told us:
1. How does a caucus work? It depends on which party is “caucusing”. The Republican caucus is essentially an in-person primary where everyone shows up at the same time, speaks or listens to others’ speeches, and votes. That’s it.
The Democratic caucus has been the exotic one in the past, requiring in-person participants to huddle for their candidate, see which candidates are “viable,” and to re-align with a more popular candidate if their favorite doesn’t meet a minimum threshold of support.
This year Iowa Democrats will be using new mail-in preference cards, to make their proceedings more accessible to those who can’t be in the room at caucus time. The cards won’t replace the traditional in-person meetings on Jan. 15. But with an incumbent Democratic President running for re-election, the Democratic caucus simply can’t offer much in the way of drama or surprise. Voters can request their preference cards as late as Feb. 19, and the results won’t be known until March 5.
2. Who will win the undercard match? If The Iowa Poll is right, and it almost always is, Donald Trump will win the Iowa Republican caucuses by a comfortable margin. Who will finish second is the question. The answer is: we do not know. The Iowa Poll says it will be either Nikki Haley or Ron DeSantis. It won’t be anyone else.
3. What about the weather? This from The National Weather Service:
WIND CHILL WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CST TUESDAY
WHAT...Dangerously cold wind chills. Wind chills as low as 40 below zero.
WHERE...All of central Iowa.
WHEN...Until noon CST Tuesday.
IMPACTS...The dangerously cold wind chills could cause frostbite on exposed skin in as little as 10 minutes.
4. How will the weather affect the results? Three theories. First theory: Only the ride-or-die true believers brave the weather. Trump has a lot of those folks, so the weather helps him. Second theory: We all know changing someone’s behavior is hard, and Trump is hoping to change behavior by turning out first-time caucus-goers. The weather might cause them to stick to their old ways, so the weather hurts him. Third theory: caucus locations are closer to caucus-goers in the suburbs than in rural areas. Trump’s “base” is (partly) rural. Some of his strongest supporters may believe Trump doesn’t need their support tonight; he’s going to win regardless. Trump’s support is thus diminished. All three theories can be (somewhat) true.
5. When will we know something? The two major election day voter polling consortiums (The National Election Pool and Votecast) will likely declare Trump the winner shortly after the “doors close” (7pm Central, 8pm Eastern) at every precinct caucus across the state.
The projection of the “undercard” winner (Haley or DeSantis) will probably come later in the evening. It will be the focus of most of the cable news coverage. An early call for either outcome (Haley defeats DeSantis of vice versa) would indicate a “comfortable” margin of “victory” in the battle for second place.
6. Sources. For news and updates, The Republican Party of Iowa and The Des Moines Register websites are your best bets. Nationally, The New York Times “needle” is what a lot of people in Iowa will be checking on throughout the evening.
Rob Sand (D) is Iowa's 33rd State Auditor. He was elected in 2018 after serving seven years as Iowa's chief public corruption prosecutor in the Iowa Attorney General's Office. There, he led the discovery and prosecution of the largest lottery rigging scheme in American history. He can be reached at rob@robsand.com.