The Mid-Terms and the Sharpies.
Political News Items via News Items.
Editor’s Note: We posted what follows at our “sister” Substack newsletter, Political News Items.
1. My friend Charlie Cook wrote a very good piece on the current status of the upcoming mid-term elections. Here’s a (lengthy) excerpt:
Republicans’ chances of losing their House majority are about as high as they could possibly be. The GOP edge in that chamber is wafer-thin, currently 218-214 with three vacancies. If you push the vacant seats in the direction they obviously will go, the advantage expands only slightly to 220-215. Almost any loss would be sufficient to change control. President Trump’s poor job-approval numbers, averaging just 41 percent (with 55 percent disapproval), ensure that he will be a serious liability in swing districts. Voters who simply wanted the Biden-Harris administration out of office in 2024 are getting far more than they bargained for, and not in a positive way.
So it’s inevitable that some Democrats, and journalists who are sympathetic to their cause, are quick to declare that a “blue wave” is coming. Yet these declarations ignore a number of factors that make it unlikely GOP losses will match the legitimate Democratic waves of 2006 and 2018.
True enough, Trump’s approval ratings among Democrats (well down into the single digits) present a nightmare situation for any Republican seeking reelection in a blue district. But hold on: Only three Republicans were elected in 2024 in districts that Kamala Harris won. Among independents nationally, Trump’s approval ratings typically are down in the high 20s and low 30s, but gerrymandering and political self-sorting by the population has shrunk the number of purple districts, thus diluting independents’ power. There are very few Republican-held seats anywhere in that much peril.
Among Republicans, Trump’s approval ratings remain in the 80s. Stories of a split in the MAGA base are not based on real data. MAGA voters are so in love with him and trust him so thoroughly that nothing—not the Epstein files nor the attacks on Venezuela and Iran—are peeling them off. So Democrats have their work cut out for them to flip many red districts.
According to the latest House ratings published by The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter, only 17 GOP seats are rated as Toss Up or worse. Adding in the next level of competitive seats (“Lean Republican”) brings only three more GOP seats to the competitive pile—still well below the post-World War II average midterm outcome of a 26-seat loss for the president’s party. Even adding in the 15 GOP-held seats in the “Likely Republican” category only brings us to a total of 35 vulnerable seats. Democrats could run the table, hold on to all their own vulnerable seats, and still fall short of their pickups in 2006 or 2018.
Other highly respected forecasters, such as Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales and Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball, come to similar conclusions. (Source: charliecookpolitics.com, cookpolitical.com, insideelections.com, centerforpolitics.org)
2. That said, there are some “variables”. One of them is growing concern over the president’s “mental sharpness”. This from a recent Washington Post-ABC News-IPSOS poll:
On two personal attributes, negative perceptions have grown. The percentage saying he lacks the mental sharpness to serve effectively has increased steadily over the past three years and now stands at 56 percent. On the question of his physical fitness to serve, Americans are split almost evenly, 48 percent saying yes and 51 percent saying no. At the beginning of 2024, 57 percent said he had the physical health to serve effectively. (Source: washingtonpost.com)
This from a recent Reuters-IPSOS poll:
Six in ten Americans, including a significant slice of Republicans, think President Donald Trump has become erratic as he ages, according to a new Reuters/Ipsos poll. The six-day poll concluded on Monday, the day before the 79-year-old president gives his annual State of the Union address to Congress following a month of angry reprimands of lawmakers and judges. Overall, 61% of respondents in the poll said they would describe Trump as having “become erratic with age.“ Some 89% of Democrats, 30% of Republicans and 64% of independents described him this way. (Source: reuters.com)
This perception of Trump’s “mental sharpness” isn’t a function of “Trump Derangement Syndrome”. What’s driving it are stories like this one, which appeared on The Washington Post’s website yesterday:
President Donald Trump spent five minutes of Thursday’s Cabinet meeting boasting of his thrift with a story about negotiating for $5 personalized Sharpies. The company that makes the permanent markers said the exchange never happened.
Trump was busy touting his plans to make over the John F. Kennedy Center for the Performing Arts and criticizing the renovation of the Federal Reserve headquarters when he went off on a tangent about the pen he was holding.
“This pen is an interesting example,” he said of the black permanent marker between his fingers. “This pen is very inexpensive, but it writes well, I like it.”
Trump, whose preference for Sharpies is as well known as his tendency to embellish, exaggerate and fabulize, said he asked the marker maker for a solution to make the pens look more official.
“I called the guy, I said, ‘I’d like to use your pen, but I can’t have a great thing with a big S on it saying Sharpie as I’m signing a $1 trillion airplane contract to buy brand new fighter jets,’” Trump said.
“He says, ‘Well, I can make it nicer.’”
“I said, ‘What can you do?’”
“He said, ‘I’ll paint it black.’”
“I said, ‘That’s nice.’”
“‘And I can even paint the White House on it, sir, if you like, in gold.’ Almost real gold. Not bad. ‘And I can even do your signature, sir.’”
Trump went on: “So the guy said to me, ‘You don’t have to pay me, sir. I’ll give them to you for nothing.’”
“I said, ‘No, I don’t want that. Let me pay you. I want to pay you.’”
“‘No, sir. You don’t have to. You’re the president of the United States.’ He was shocked. The head of Sharpie. He gets a call. I don’t even know who the hell he is.”
“He said, ‘He’s really the president?’ He said, ‘No, you don’t have to pay me, sir. This is such an honor.’”
“I said, ‘No, I want to pay you.’”
“And he said, ‘What would you like to pay?’”
“I said, ‘How about five bucks a pen?’”
“He said, ‘That’s all right.’”
Presented with a transcript of Trump’s account, a spokesperson for Sharpie maker Newell Brands said it did not occur.
“We don’t have any information about the conversation described,” the spokesperson said. “We’re proud to be a beloved brand trusted by so many globally.” (Source: washingtonpost.com. Italics/bold mine)
We assume this story is true because Newell Brands has/had every incentive to confirm Mr. Trump’s account. Denying it outright risks (perhaps ensures) the White House’s wrath. Denying it outright could do measurable damage to sales of Sharpies, since it’s safe to assume that Trump’s MAGA base will take offense.
Deny it outright the company did. Assuming that Newell Brands is telling the truth, the implications are more than a bit disturbing. It is likely similar stories will appear in the future, near- and medium-term.
The predictable reaction to stories like this one will be a desire to constrain the president politically. Pathetic though they may be (and they are pathetic), the issue of the president’s “mental sharpness” can boost Democrats up and down the ballot in November. If nothing else, the issue makes the prospect of the Democrats regaining control of the U.S. House more certain and of capturing the U.S. Senate more plausible.
3. Among most everyone I know, the view of the Iran war is simple. We hope American/Israeli offensive is successful, militarily and politically, that the Iranian regime collapses, and that the Iranian people are finally free of a malignant and thoroughly corrupt police state that masquerades as a “theocracy”. That’s the outcome devoutly to be wished.
Most everyone I know fears that the war will end with the regime not losing, and thus “winning” the war.
The perception that Mr. Trump is “crazy” hangs on the outcome. Victory equals “crazy like a fox.” Defeat (or not victory) equals “crazy”.
Not exactly, obviously. And not fair, of course. But fair isn’t a feature of American politics.
My friend John Heilemann, co-author of two great books about the 2008 and 2012 presidential campaigns, and I talked about much of the above on his podcast, “Impolitic.” You can listen to that conversation by clicking on this link.
Charlie is spot on: a major wave isn’t possible. What you’ve left out is also important: Ds approval ratings are abysmal, substantially below both Trump and Rs - and this after 6 months of noisy resistance and essential issues that don’t get resolved and disappear, like the great Obamacare subsidies kerfuffle.