“It’s the first thing I read every morning.” — David Barboza, founder of WireScreen and former Shanghai Bureau Chief for The New York Times.
1. State TV is reporting the “triumph of the great Syrian revolution and the fall of the criminal Assad regime.” It is also broadcasting footage of celebrations nationwide. (Source: bloomberg.com)
2. Financial Times:
Syrian rebels seized Damascus on Sunday as President Bashar al-Assad’s regime collapsed in the face of the insurgents’ stunning offensive across the country.
The rebels said in a statement that “the city of Damascus is free from the tyrant Bashar al-Assad” and that “Assad has fled” after various factions encircled the capital from the north and the south.
The whereabouts of Assad were unclear, with reports that he had fled, as the rebel onslaught brought an ignominious end to a family dynasty that has ruled Syria for more than 50 years.
Videos sent to the Financial Times by a Damascus resident purportedly showed people inside the presidential palace, rummaging through rooms and smashing pictures of the Assad family.
A man dressed in civilian clothing appeared on Syrian state TV on Sunday morning, declaring that the rebels had “liberated” Damascus, and released detainees from “regime prisons”. He called on fighters to “protect the properties of the free Syrian state”.
The speaker was flanked by eight other men, also in civilian clothes. Several of the men had their arms around each others’ shoulders. (Source: ft.com)
3. Rane Worldview:
The collapse of the Syrian regime means a contested political process among the multiple rebel factions will start, though as they have competing territorial and political interests, this process will lead to factionalism and likely further instability. While the complete control of Damascus may take several days due to resistance from remaining regime-aligned militias and SAA remnants, it will likely mark the beginning of a political transition. While the situation is very fluid, there may be clashes among competing groups, but ultimately, the faction that captures Damascus first will dictate terms. New elections as part of the transition period are likely, which would postpone any potential fighting, but no rebel group has made its post-Assad plans clear. This provisional period would likely also see rebel factions carve up the rest of the country, with the U.S.-backed Kurdish group known as the Syrian Democratic Forces controlling the Euphrates River Valley, northeast, and Iraqi-Syrian border; the FSA holding the south and potentially Damascus itself; and HTS holding Idlib, Aleppo, Hama, and Homs. Latakia, the former regime stronghold, would remain a government remnant or emerge headed by a new Alawite-led faction. While this process takes place, factions are likely to cooperate on the formation of a post-Assad government nominally, but negotiations over the final form of the government and its postwar constitution will be slow and will be influenced by foreign actors, particularly Turkey, which will oppose any constitution that might grant autonomy to the northeast's Kurds. Meanwhile, the Islamic State will exploit any security vacuums to retake territory.
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