The Uncertainty Index.

The search for a cheap car.

“(News Items) is the first thing I read every morning.” — Rob Manfred, Commissioner, Major League Baseball.

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1. President Trump is holding a gun to the head of Volodymyr Zelensky, demanding huge reparations payments and laying claim to half of Ukraine’s oil, gas, and hydrocarbon resources as well as almost all its metals and much of its infrastructure. The latest version of his “minerals deal”, obtained by The Telegraph, is unprecedented in the history of modern diplomacy and state relations. “It is an expropriation document,” said Alan Riley, an expert on energy law at the Atlantic Council. “There are no guarantees, no defense clauses, the US puts up nothing. “The Americans can walk away, the Ukrainians can’t. I’ve never seen anything like it before.” (Source: telegraph.co.uk)

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2. Russian President Vladimir Putin suggested Ukraine be placed under a form of temporary administration to allow for new elections and the signature of key accords to reach a settlement in the war, Russian news agencies reported early on Friday. Putin's comments, during a visit to the northern port of Murmansk, come amid U.S. attempts to forge a settlement to the conflict by re-establishing links with Russia and engaging with both Moscow and Kyiv, in separate talks. (Source: reuters.com)

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3. The US’s federal debt burden is set to surpass the peak it reached in the wake of the second world war in coming years, Congress’s fiscal watchdog has warned, underscoring growing concerns over America’s public finances. The Congressional Budget Office said on Thursday that the US’s debt-to-GDP ratio would reach 107 per cent during the 2029 fiscal year — exceeding the 1940s era peak — and continue rising to 156 per cent by 2055. The debt-to-GDP ratio is forecast be 100 per cent for the 2025 fiscal year. (Sources: ft.com, cbo.gov)

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4. Dallas Fed Energy Survey:

Activity in the oil and gas sector increased slightly in first quarter of 2025, according to oil and gas executives responding to the Dallas Fed Energy Survey. The business activity index, the survey’s broadest measure of the conditions energy firms face in the Eleventh District, remained in positive territory but declined slightly from 6.0 in the fourth quarter 2024 to 3.8 in the first quarter. The company outlook index decreased 12 points to -4.9, suggesting slight pessimism among firms. Meanwhile, the outlook uncertainty index jumped 21 points to 43.1. (Source: dallasfed.org)

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