Tipping Point.
A conversation with General Russ Howard (Retired)
(Podcast Interview with Gen. Russ Howard (Retired). Recorded Tuesday, 2 June. Produced by Dale Eisinger)
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In 1972, researchers at Massachusetts Institute of Technology published The Limits to Growth, a pioneering analysis of the long-term stability of global civilization. Using systems modeling, they examined the interaction of population growth, industrial expansion, resource depletion, and environmental stress.
Their conclusion was stark: if prevailing trends continued, global systems would enter a period of accelerating strain in the early 21st century, with a potential tipping point around 2040. Not a sudden collapse, but a cascading failure—where pressures on water systems, agricultural production, and global supply chains compound faster than institutions can respond.
Decades later, follow-on analyses conducted by researchers affiliated with Massachusetts Institute of Technology and the University of Melbourne compared real-world data against the original model. Their findings were sobering: observed trends in resource consumption, environmental degradation, and economic output continue to align closely with the study’s “business-as-usual” scenario, indicating that the projected pathway toward systemic disruption remains largely intact.
Today, those pressures are no longer theoretical. Water degradation—driven by overuse, contamination, and climate stress—has reduced both availability and quality across key regions. At the same time, food systems are under increasing strain, with crop failures, supply disruptions, and price volatility contributing to persistent shortages and growing instability. Global food and water systems are under extreme, non-linear stress. Multiple regions report the total exhaustion of freshwater aquifers, irreversible soil degradation, and the weaponization of food resources.
The question is: starting at 2040 and working backward, what are the “windows of intervention” that might halt (or at least slow down) “cascading failure”. I talked to Russ about that, and the Center he’s starting at Arizona State University to study these issues. We also talked about the wars in the Gulf and Ukraine.
A bit more detail: Gen. Howard is a farmer in Minnesota and the President of Howard's Consulting Services. He is also a Distinguished Senior Fellow at the Joint Special Operations University. He currently consults for Audia Corporation in Washington, Pennsylvania and has served as an advisor to several organizations including Laser Shot, in Houston, Texas; Development Alternatives Incorporated in Bethesda, Maryland; and the Home Team Academy in Singapore.
Previously BG Howard was the Director of the Jebsen Center for Counterterrorism studies at the Fletcher School in Medford, Massachusetts. BG Howard retired from the Army as Head of the Department of Social Sciences and the Founding Director of the Combating Terrorism Center at West Point. His previous positions include Deputy Department Head of the Department of Social Sciences, Army Chief of Staff Fellow at the Center for International Affairs at Harvard University, and Commander of the 1st Special Forces Group (Airborne) at Fort Lewis, Washington.