Too Close To Call.
In Australia and Pennsylvania.
1. Australia's national election has become too close to call, polls released on Wednesday showed, as the ruling conservative coalition narrowed the gap with the main opposition Labor Party three days before the country decides on a new government. Center-left Labor's lead over the Liberal-National coalition has shrunk to 51% to 49% on a two-party preferred basis from 54% to 46% two weeks ago, a poll for the Sydney Morning Herald showed, while a Guardian poll indicated it had dipped a point to 48%. Prime Minister Scott Morrison described the pre-polling trends as "really encouraging." Nearly six million voters out of an electorate of 17 million have already cast their ballots through postal votes or early in-person voting, official data showed. Election Day is 21 May. (Source: asia.nikkei.com)
2. Coverage of yesterday’s primaries at this hour is incomplete. Following is a rundown of the winners and losers in some of the most important contests:
The Mehmet Oz versus David McCormick race for the GOP US Senate nomination in Pennsylvania is too close to call.
Doug Mastriano, an election denier, won the GOP gubernatorial primary election in Pennsylvania.
John Fetterman got a pacemaker hours before winning the Democratic Senate primary in Pennsylvania.
Ted Budd, anointed by Trump, won North Carolina’s Republican Senate primary in a runaway,.
Republicans are done with Rep. Madison Cawthorn.
Idaho’s incumbent Republican governor Brad Little beat back a far right-wing primary challenge.
Vote results from all of yesterday’s primaries are here. (Source: nytimes.com, Secretary of State websites of Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Idaho)
3. Trump keeps winning.
A Political News Items Note on yesterday’s primary results will be distributed at some point tomorrow. I spent the early part of this morning trying to parse whether David McCormick or Mehmet Oz would emerge victorious in Pennsylvania. I’m persuaded that Mr. McCormick will end up with more votes than Dr. Oz, when the initial count (including all mail-in/absentee ballots) is completed. That said, there will be a recount. The race is that close.
Much of this morning’s coverage continues with the increasingly absurd “test of Trump’s influence” narrative. Here’s a headline from The Guardian: “Pennsylvania and North Carolina primaries test Trump’s hold on Republican party.”
Let’s grade the results.
The candidate Trump endorsed for the GOP Senate nomination in North Carolina won by 34 percentage points. Of the three major candidates for the GOP Senate nomination in Pennsylvania, one (McCormick) swore allegiance to all things MAGA and Trump, one (Oz) did the same and was endorsed by Trump, and one (Barnette) argued that she was the real MAGA candidate and the other two were phony globalists. Taken together, those three candidates received 87% of the vote in yesterday’s primary.
How would you grade the Trump “tests” in North Carolina and Pennsylvania? On a curve? (Sources: theguardian.com, nytimes.com)