“Most mornings I learn more from New Items than I do from all of the traditional papers I read combined.” — Michael Blair, former presiding partner, Debevoise & Plimpton.
1. Having set the stage for a year of high-level engagement with the Trump administration, Xi Jinping is now chasing his ultimate prize, according to people familiar with the matter: a change in U.S. policy that Beijing hopes could isolate Taiwan. As President Trump has shown interest in striking an economic accord with China in the coming year, the people said, the Chinese leader is planning to press his American counterpart to formally state that the U.S. “opposes” Taiwan’s independence. Since coming to power in late 2012, Xi has made bringing Taiwan under Beijing’s control a key tenet of his “China Dream” of national revival. Now, well into an unprecedented third term, he has repeatedly emphasized that “reunification” is inevitable and can’t be stopped by outside forces—a reference to Washington’s political and military support to Taipei. (Source: wsj.com)
2. Kyiv came under heavy drone and missile bombardment earlier today, in what independent monitors said was one of the biggest Russian attacks on the Ukrainian capital and surrounding region since the full-scale war began. At least three people were killed and about 10 injured in the city, Tymur Tkachenko, head of Kyiv’s military administration, said on the Telegram messaging app. One of the dead has been identified as a 12-year-old girl, although that has not been officially confirmed, Tkachenko said. Several other regions were also hit in the strike, with at least 16 people, including three children, injured in the southern city of Zaporizhzhia, authorities said. (Source: reuters.com)
3. Russia has powered its war in Ukraine by keeping its oil flowing. Now, after more than 3½ years of conflict, the gusher is slowly starting to peter out. The toll of the war and Western sanctions have made extracting oil out of Russia’s already shrinking reservoirs harder. Some projections point to at least around a 10% drop in output by the end of the decade, putting the Kremlin’s economy—and the petrodollars it is built on—in peril. Since the start of the war in Ukraine, Moscow has kept oil production and exports relatively stable by focusing on the maintenance of existing fields rather than the exploration of new ones. But the longer-term outlook is bleak. Up to one-third of Russia’s budget revenue comes from the profits of the energy sector and that proportion is likely to shrink as production slows. (Source: wsj.com)
4. European officials continue to report unidentified drones operating within NATO airspace. The Danish Ministry of Defense (MoD) reported on September 27 that Danish Defense Command observed drones near multiple Danish military facilities, including Skrydstrup Air Base and the barracks of the Jutland Dragoon Regiment in Holstebro. The Vilnius Public Security Service reported on September 26 that three unidentified drones disrupted flights at the Vilnius Airport twice on the afternoon of September 26. Finnish outlet Yle reported on September 27 that an unknown entity piloted a drone over the Valajaskoski Power Plant in Rovaniemi, Lapland, in northern Finland. (Source: understandingwar.com)
5. Moldova is heading into a high-stakes parliamentary election today that could either further its push to join the European Union or pull the nation closer to Russia. The tug of war between East and West in Moldova’s politics has imbued the election with outsize importance. Sandwiched between Ukraine and Romania, Moldova, a tiny nation of 2.4 million people, is both strategically important because of its location and a critical test of sentiment toward western Europe. The vote, for 101 representatives who will serve four-year terms, comes at an unsettled moment in the country’s geopolitics. (Source: nytimes.com)
6. The Italian region of Marche has begun voting to select its governor, a litmus test for Premier Giorgia Meloni’s coalition and the center-left opposition as both forces gear up for general elections to be held by 2027. With no clear front-runner, about 1.3 million eligible voters in the central Italian region by the Adriatic Sea will select a new governor between Sunday and Monday. The consequences could be felt far beyond the region and could alter the balance of power in Rome, as parties begin to jostle for the coming electoral season. (Sources: britannica.com, bloomberg.com)
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