Winter is Coming.

Xi goes to the bank.

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1. Europe’s deadliest war in generations remains exceedingly violent, precariously balanced and increasingly complicated by factors far from the battlefield. Ukrainian and Russian soldiers are squared off across trench lines that have barely shifted for nearly a year. Meanwhile, tens of millions of Ukrainians are bracing for another winter of terror and suffering as Moscow stockpiles missiles that could be used to target their nation’s infrastructure in an attempt to demoralize civilians and make cities uninhabitable. Ukrainian forces are still fighting to break through heavily fortified Russian lines in the south, but the pace of their advance has been slow, averaging only 90 yards per day during the peak of the summer offensive, according to a new analysis by the Center for Strategic and International Studies. While Ukraine is still pressing its counteroffensive, defenders have the clear advantage in this war, said ​​Seth Jones, one author of the report. Ukrainians pierced one line of Russian defense around the flattened village of Robotyne in the south. But after five months of brutal fighting, they have yet to achieve a major breakthrough. Moscow, however, is not just sitting back on defense. It is using perhaps its greatest advantage — the sheer mass of its army — to launch renewed offensive operations in the east. (Source: nytimes.com)

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2. Israel intensified its aerial bombing campaign on the Gaza Strip, striking more than 320 targets in the enclave over the past day, as President Biden and other Western leaders expressed support for Israel while urging it to protect civilians. The Israeli airstrikes, aimed at Hamas militants and their operational infrastructure following their Oct. 7 attack on southern Israel, have mostly focused on northern Gaza ahead of a planned Israeli ground offensive. As the Israeli military stepped up its bombing campaign there, it again called on civilians to leave, warning that residents who remain could be considered allies of Hamas. (Source: wsj.com)

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3. The White House yesterday said Iran was in some cases "actively facilitating" rocket and drone attacks by Iranian-backed proxy groups on U.S. military bases in Iraq and Syria, and President Biden has directed the Department of Defense to brace for more and respond appropriately. White House spokesman John Kirby said there had been an uptick in such attacks over the last week, and especially over the last few days, but the U.S. would not allow its interests in the region to "go unchallenged." He said the United States believed these groups were supported by Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard (IRGC) and the Iranian government, which was also continuing to support the Hamas and Hezbollah militant groups. (Source: reuters.com)

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4. In a year when the US economy exceeded almost everybody’s expectations, the underlying federal deficit roughly doubled, spotlighting a dire fiscal trajectory likely to only worsen the partisan budget battles in Washington. The government ran a $2.02 trillion deficit for the fiscal year through September, after adjustments to remove the impact of President Joe Biden’s student-loan forgiveness program, which was scotched by the Supreme Court. The gap is $1.02 trillion more than the prior year. The surge is a powerful illustration of a fiscal path that’s triggered warnings from economists, politicians and credit rating agencies. It also helps explain why yields on longer-term US Treasuries are reaching highs unseen since before the global financial crisis, with the government needing to issue ever more debt to cover the shortfall of revenues relative to spending. Ten-year yields surpassed 5% on Monday. (Source: bloomberg.com)

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