Zero Chance.
Since the beginning of time.
“(News Items) is the first thing I read every morning.” — Rob Manfred, Commissioner, Major League Baseball.
1. The Wall Street Journal:
The U.S. may have decided it no longer wants to be the world’s policeman, but the military operation that captured Venezuela’s autocratic president shows it is far more willing now to be the enforcer in its own hemisphere.
President Trump’s audacious decision to seize Nicolás Maduro from his Caracas compound and whisk him off to a New York court to stand trial on drugs and weapons charges heralds a new geopolitical strategy: The U.S. and the U.S. only will dominate the Western Hemisphere.
For the Trump administration, that is Washington’s core interest, a vision laid out recently in its national-security strategy. In the wake of Maduro’s arrest, Trump has warned Colombia’s leftist president that he could be next, said Cuba’s regime was likely to fall soon of its own accord, and again raised the idea that the U.S. should control Greenland.
“American dominance in the Western Hemisphere will never be questioned again,” Trump told reporters Monday. Hours later, the State Department used its X account to put out a picture of Trump emblazoned with the headline: “This is OUR hemisphere,” echoing Trump’s hard-edged rhetoric in an unusually blunt tone for the country’s diplomatic agency. (Source: wsj.com. Italics mine.)
2. Financial Times:
Venezuela’s government has launched a crackdown in the wake of the US capture of Nicolás Maduro, arresting journalists and deploying paramilitary forces to suppress any show of support for the authoritarian leader’s removal.
The wave of repression comes as Delcy Rodríguez, Maduro’s former deputy and the country’s new leader, moved to consolidate her hold over the oil-rich nation in the wake of the surprise US commando operation, which snatched Maduro from a military base to face trial.
Gun-toting paramilitaries known as colectivos have been deployed to the streets of Caracas under a state of emergency announced on Monday, which forbade Venezuelans from showing support for the US raid. Media unions said 14 journalists and media workers — 11 from foreign outlets — had been detained for hours before being released.
Most of the arrests of journalists took place around the National Assembly building as Rodríguez — who US President Donald Trump said would lead a government open to Washington’s interests — was formally sworn in as acting president, according to the National Syndicate for Press Workers in Venezuela.
Since US commandos seized Maduro and his politician wife Cilia Flores on Saturday, the remainder of his regime has sought to stifle public celebration. (Source: ft.com)
3. Eva Golinger:
This is just a simple overview. The government in Venezuela has been comprised of several groups that have a power-sharing pact. They control different sectors of the apparatus - security, military, pueblo, colectivos, institutions, judiciary, oil industry, business, etc. One of those groups - Delcy and her brother Jorge - have now taken power through a meticulous and ‘evil genius’ negotiation with the Trump administration that has been going on for months behind the scenes. Note that the new indictment against Maduro and Cilia includes both Maduro’s son and Diosdado - this is purposefully to put them on alert that they are next should they betray the Rodriguez siblings. CIA is now operating inside Venezuela and can execute another ‘extraordinary rendition’ at any time on Trump’s orders. Delcy has allowed them in and permitted them to stay. The US Embassy is returning, along with all of its intel & military support.
The calculation was that the most important thing for the ‘Boliviarian movement’ (they do not represent chavismo, they long ago betrayed Chavez and his legacy) and their own interests (power, wealth accumulation) was for them to maintain power - no matter the cost, including sacrificing Maduro. There was zero chance they would ever cede power to Machado or the exiled opposition. They represent a system, not a government taking its turn. They will do whatever it takes to retain control of the country, even negotiating and compromising with Trump, the ‘evil empire’.
The lobby began months ago, both with the Trump administration and in the media. Delcy was positioned in the international media as the ‘moderate’ and the most pragmatic to deal with. This made it clear that the cards had been dealt. Once Maduro was out, Delcy was in.
In the coming days, more business deals will be made, some sanctions may be loosened and prisoners released. They will continue to appease Trump with lucrative deals, opening up Venezuela’s rich resources (oil, gold rare earths, heavy metals, minerals, coastline, etc) to Trump and his friends. Perhaps a Trump resort in Margarita Island or Los Roques. All the things Machado promised, but without her. Trump has no interest in democracy or Machado. He never met with her, never invited her to the White House like George W. Bush did during the height of the attempts to overthrow Hugo Chavez. Trump resents her Nobel Peace Prize (which he believes he deserves), but also understands the truth: Machado cannot command the country right now. She does not have the support from the groups in power or their enablers. Delcy&Jorge promised Trump stability and control, for now.
If sanctions ease, life can improve inside the country, which will calm tensions over the US invasion and Maduro’s violent capture. No doubt that the remaining chavista and leftist movements in the country are not happy with this betrayal. Over time there will be a growing internal opposition to the government, but they will likely employ the same tactics as before - any dissent will be treated as treason and repressed. Especially now with Trump’s arsenal hovering above Caracas. They will tell the people that this is necessary to continue the ‘chavista movement’, even though their true interest is their own power and wealth. However, the biggest wild card is Trump. His volatility and lack of strategy shows he can change his mind at any time. It is a very dangerous time for Venezuela. (Sources: evagolinger.com, x.com)
