Listen now (45 mins) | A podcast about the 2024 presidential election.
John, one question - because Trump is who he is doesn't it seem like 2024 is likely going to be a referendum on Trump, again? So a near-run thing to be sure (44,000 votes in 2020) but that was prior to Dobbs and prior to January 6 (though prior to Biden having a record)
We ran this ~ experiment in 2022, and yes it was a near-run thing but other than Ron Johnson in WI the populist Republicans (so ~ proxy for Trump) lost in Georgia and Arizona and the Democrats ran up the numbers in Michigan and Pennsylvania. That election turned out to be an acid test for the GOP populist as opposed to their opponents (the opposite of the base midterm)
It's hard to see Trump winning back the marginal 2022 Atlanta college white voter. Now maybe it truns out to be more of a story of the collapse of Biden's voter share in which you have a 2016-like story but hard to square that with 2018, 2020 and 2022 and the special elections. If Biden holds GA we can give Trump NV, WI and AZ and Biden's still okay in the electoral college. IE Biden needs to hold MI, PA and GA.
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