This is a deeply flawed idea. This is an existential crisis for the Iranian regime. They do not need to continue to sell oil to continue an asymmetric war for many months. Closing the strait would make the energy crisis worse in the immediate term, and Iran can take the pain of the closure longer than the rest of the world. Absent a miracle regime change inside Iran, there is going to either be negotiation or a deep, deep worldwide recession.
This is a reasonable approach, and obviously better than allowing Iran to continue to export. However, I think Richard and many other policy experts are under-estimating the likelihood of a transition to a real war footing. The West isn’t ready for a return to reality and some other cultures are well aware of that. They will continue to press for far longer than any Westerner would deem rational.
This means the straights won’t open, regardless of whether our forces remain there or not. This is unacceptable to the markets and the modern economy, so boots will eventually have to be on the ground.
This will expose the laziness of Western societies to adapt appropriately to modern war fighting techniques, in both tactics and acquisitions. The market pain and human casualties will eventually shock the West into a post-911 mindset. Circumstances will demand a new wave of innovation in military organization and maybe even bring the divided country a little closer as we feel external pressure again.
Hopefully the rest of the West comes around to supporting the efforts that they know are necessary and are for their own benefit, regardless of who the president is. They have too long dismissed us with the kind of arrogance that a teenager with no responsibilities shows toward their parent.
dumbest thing I've read today
This is a deeply flawed idea. This is an existential crisis for the Iranian regime. They do not need to continue to sell oil to continue an asymmetric war for many months. Closing the strait would make the energy crisis worse in the immediate term, and Iran can take the pain of the closure longer than the rest of the world. Absent a miracle regime change inside Iran, there is going to either be negotiation or a deep, deep worldwide recession.
This is a reasonable approach, and obviously better than allowing Iran to continue to export. However, I think Richard and many other policy experts are under-estimating the likelihood of a transition to a real war footing. The West isn’t ready for a return to reality and some other cultures are well aware of that. They will continue to press for far longer than any Westerner would deem rational.
This means the straights won’t open, regardless of whether our forces remain there or not. This is unacceptable to the markets and the modern economy, so boots will eventually have to be on the ground.
This will expose the laziness of Western societies to adapt appropriately to modern war fighting techniques, in both tactics and acquisitions. The market pain and human casualties will eventually shock the West into a post-911 mindset. Circumstances will demand a new wave of innovation in military organization and maybe even bring the divided country a little closer as we feel external pressure again.
Hopefully the rest of the West comes around to supporting the efforts that they know are necessary and are for their own benefit, regardless of who the president is. They have too long dismissed us with the kind of arrogance that a teenager with no responsibilities shows toward their parent.
Great idea! Praying all countries listen!